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July 24, 2003 The situation with North Korea seems to be drifting towards war, or by some accounts, spiraling out of control. Should we run to the table and cut a deal, or should we stare Kim Jong- Il right in the eyes and say, one way or another it stops here and now? What would be the consequences of ignoring or acting against North Korea? These could turn out to be some of the most important questions in our generation. The resolution of this standoff will, in one way or another, shape the future of the world we live in. There is no acceptable quick-fix nor an easy solution. There is only a decision that will have to be made. The moment of truth approaches. According to a Center for Defense Information report, a central tool of the North Korean regime to stay in power is the use of weapons development in order to gain aid, concessions, and favorable treaties from its perspective enemies. Other tools include explosive rhetoric and extremely provocative behavior. Some examples include withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, recent threats to "demonstrate" or export nuclear weapons, and the March 2nd incident. On March 2 of this year, North Korean Migs intercepted a U.S. RC-135S reconnaisance aircraft over international waters. The North Koreans locked on to the U.S. plane with their weapons systems, a direct violation of international law, and harrassed the U.S. plane for a while before going home. Had they tried that stunt with a couple of F-15's in the vicinity, we might be at war right now. The debate over what to do has been going on for quite a while. President Bush is standing firm in his belief that multi-lateral diplomacy is imperative. This is logical since Japan and South Korea have much more at stake than we do, at least as of now. They are within the range of North Korean missiles right now, we are not. We will be in range very soon. Democrats want to unilaterally deal with North Korea. This is strange, perhaps hypocritical, considering their position on the Iraq War. It is, to a degree, understandable to want to rush to the table and deal. What is troubling is the precedent set in 1994. In 1994, tensions were rising, we were on the brink of war. The Clinton Administration blinked. They cut a deal, giving North Korea light-water nuclear reactor technology and other aid in exchange for deactivation of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. North Korea lied, cheated, and stole, making the U.S. look like a fool in the process. Now, 9 years later, we are back in the same situation. It appears that this route goes in circles. In 1994, we were dealing with a North Korea with no nukes and reaching the U.S. with a missile was a dream. Now, we are dealing with a North Korea that has possibly up to 3 nuclear weapons and experimental missile technology capable of reaching Alaska and the west coast. Undersecretary of State James Kelly was presented with an offer from North Korea that was hailed as "unrealistic, and out of the question." What is really scary is what we might be facing in 9 more years if we don't solve this problem now. A North Korea with 10-20 nuclear weapons and OPERATIONAL missile technology capable of reaching anywhere in this country is not unrealistic nor is it out of the question. What will the price tag for peace be then? My guess is "unrealistic, and out of the question." Preemption may well be our best option in this case. If, that is, we could get concrete intelligence on the locations of all of North Korea's nuclear assets. There is one problem. The 11,000 North Korean artillery pieces aimed at the South Korean capital, Seoul. Seoul has a population of over 10 million people. Some believe we have the capability to take out the entire threat to Seoul in one enormous offensive strike. Perhaps in theory, but in reality, that may be the biggest case of wishful thinking in history. Many people believe that North Korea could steamroll right through South Korea and that the only thing stopping them is our nuclear threat. This is wrong. Nearly all credible assessments conclude that South Korea's military could defeat the North Korean military, all by itself. North Korea has the fourth largest military in the world (ironically, so did Iraq before the '91 Gulf War). The majority of their equipment is 50's and 60's vintage, while South Korea's equipment is comparable to our own. We saw how the battle went when modern technology met 1960's technology in our 2 wars with Iraq. The South Koreans are some of the best trained soldiers in the world. The North Koreans are, by comparison, nowhere near the level that the South Koreans are in terms of training. A war would differ greatly from Iraq though. North Korea has over 800 combat aircraft, although outdated, they would not sit on the ground. They also have around 40 ships armed with guided anti-ship missiles, in addition to about 2 dozen attack submarines and over 60 smaller subs. They wouldn't sit it out either. All would be destroyed, but the cost, in lives, would likely be a good deal higher than in Iraq, for us that is. Tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands of South Koreans would die. For that reason, I don't know if I could pull the trigger. If the South Korean government supported preemption, perhaps the decision would come a little less painfully. If the North started a war, then the decision would be much easier to make. It would still be a very painful one though. The situation with North Korea is heading towards critical mass. As I stated earlier, the moment of truth is approaching. We cannot, blindly, run to the table with a blank check. We cannot turn a blind eye to historical precedent and hope that North Korea will be honest this time. We cannot allow nuclear proliferation in "powderkeg" regions of the world, in this case the Korean Peninsula. We absolutely cannot ignore the ramifications of allowing a man like Kim Jong-Il to get the ability to put a nuclear warhead on U.S. soil. We can only hope that, in this dangerous game of nuclear chicken, that North Korea blinks first...and soon. Even if they do, millions of innocent North Korean peasants will continue to starve. Talk about a no-win situation. ------------ About the Author: Jonathan Robbins is a 29 year old father of 3, living in Indianapolis, IN. He works as a toolmaker and is currently pursuing a degree in Political Science and History. Jonathan was drawn into politics, current events, and history by the events of 9/11/01. Email Jonathan Robbins: jcrob@hsonline.net Comment on this column in the forum. Tell a friend about this site! ------------ |
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