So, Where Do We Go From Here?

Articles

Craig Chamberlain

So, Where Do We Go From Here?
Jan 20, 2004

Iowa is over and now it is a stampede to New Hampshire. So, what happens now? Does Kerry win again? Does Dean reclaim the lead? Does Edwards pull a shocker? Does Clark lead the democrats to victory?

Kerry will undoubtedly get a boost in the New Hampshire polls because of his win in Iowa. However, as someone pointed out at newsmax.com New Hampshire voters often nominate someone other than the winner of the Iowa Caucus. So winning could hurt Kerry here.

Dean is still a viable candidate. He has a great deal of money and his diehard supporters aren't going anywhere, and he is still strong in the New England area. His one weakness, is his disdain and arrogance. It helped him secure the left, but it didn't help him too much in Iowa. He needs to stop being so openly contemptous of everything. He can win in New Hampshire, but he needs to keep his foot out of his mouth for a week.

Senator Edwards is the biggest winner. Expected to do nothing and finishes a close second. I still don't think he will win the nomination. However, he is improving his chances of being picked as the vp on the ticket, especially if he does well in New Hampshire. Democrats are looking at him and seeing electability. I still don't see it, I just see Clinton lite.

Wesley Clark is the biggest loser here. He had been chipping away at Howard Dean in New Hampshire and had really made it a two person race. Now with the resurgent Senators Kerry and Edwards, it will likely take away from his supporters as they might defect to their campaigns. Clark has a bad habit of contradicting himself, and saying ridiculous things. His flip flops on the war could leave him open to attack.

Joe Lieberman is in dire trouble. Without a spectacular perfomrnace in New Hampshire he will not be able to hold out long enough to campaign in states where he is doing well in the polls. His strong support of the Iraq war is costing him. He keeps asserting that there is a "silent majority" in the democratic party that supports the war. He is wrong. Seventy five percent of Iowa democrats opposed the war and that is most likely true of democrats nationwide, particuarly in new england (the exception to this is in the south).

Howard Dean will most likely win in New Hampshire to revatilize his campaign. The real test will be South Carolina.

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Email Craig Chamberlain: craig_chamberlain@hotmail.com

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