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Nov 13, 2003 Well the elections of 2004 are a year away, but with 12 months to go the talk about them is endless. This is to be expected as it is a presidential reace. But I am going to focus on the senate. Well the close races anyway. Why bother commenting on obvious races like Senator Schumers easy reelection? North Carolina: Senator Edwards is retiring after one term in the senate. Maybe he thinks that being from the south will get him the number two spot on the democratic ticket, or maybe he honestly thinks he can win. This state tends to send Republicans to washington. There is a very good chance that the GOP will pick up a seat here. South Carolina: Fritz Hollings, the longest serving junior senator in history, is retiring. The state was swept by the GOP in 2002, and Hollings seat will likely be taken by the Republicans. Whoever takes his seat will continue in the south carolinian tradition of never being voted out of office. Georgia: Certainly the easiest pick up for the GOP. Zell Miller is stepping down. The Democrats in Georgia don't consider retaining Millers seat a top priority, they are more concerned with retaking the state senate. Whoever wins the GOP nomination will almost certainly be the next senator from the state of Georgia. Florida: Bob Graham, I still have trouble figuring this guy out. This is a man that was touted by the media as being a moderate( he wasn't check his voting record) rather than play to the moderate image he tries to out liberal Howard Dean. This isn't a lock for the GOP but is a race leaning in their favor. Nevada: Harry Reid. I will keep my personal opinions about him to myself. But he is vulnerable. He has never won a majority of the popular vote. He won his last election with 48% of the vote and won by just 428 votes. Right now with Congressman Gibbon not running Reid is fairly safe, but should a popular republican emerge Reid is history. As of right now the race leans in Reids favor. California: If there is one thing California republicans can agree on it is their hatred of Senator Boxer. Whether conservative, moderate, libertarian, or liberal they all want her gone. She won her two races for the senate by riding the coattails of popular democrats, in 1992 it was Bill Clinton and in 1998 it was Gray Davis. Now democrats are distancing themselves from Clinton, and who wants to be seen with a recalled Governor. Yet this race leans in Boxers favor because California is such a democratic state. That is unless a viable republican enters the race, like former senator and governor Pete Wilson. Illinois: This one is easy. The GOP is history. The democrats swept the state in 2002, and Fitzgeralds position was so weak that he decided not to seek reelection. Whoever wins the democratic nomination will be the next senator. Alaska: A strong Republican state and a seat than should not be a problem. However, Senator Lisa Murkowski got her seat when her father appointed her to it. She may not even survive the primary if she does she will face a tough general election. My prediction is that she will keep her seat in an extremely close race. South Dakota: Yes, you read this right. Tom Daschle the top democrat in the senate. Nothing would make the republicans happier than getting rid of him. The race is predicted by others to be close. Rep. Thune almost beat Senator Johnson in 2002. Daschle fought like a demon to keep Senator Johnson in the senate imagine how hard he will fight for his own seat. Daschle will win reelection. Well that's it for my senate predictions. Why bother predicting on races a year away? Well to hear the politicians talk the fate of our republic hangs in the balance of the senate races. And another reason is simply why not? Republicans will maintain control of the congress but will not have enough votes to block democratic fillibusters. ------------ Email Craig Chamberlain: craig_chamberlain@hotmail.com Comment on this column in the forum. Tell a friend about this site! ------------ |
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