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Oct. 18, 2004 Former Republican Gov. William Milliken of Michigan decided to endorse John Kerry today. He cited as a major reason the radical right-wing that President George W. Bush is steering us towards. "I felt so strongly about the direction of this country that in the end, it wasn't a difficult decision to make," Milliken said, also citing the War in Iraq and blockage of stem cell research as good reasons to back Kerry. I have crunched poll data on the 1992, 1996 and 2000 elections with tireless attention to detail. With just fourteen days to go until November 2nd, this race is still dangerously close. It will be a squeaker one way or the other. Current electoral vote predictors are evenly split on who has the lead, but no candidate has the necessary 270 electoral votes just yet. In a race this close, every endorsement counts. Pat Buchanan’s scathing review of the Bush Administration in The American Conservative was dampened slightly when the conservative pundit ended up endorsing Bush. Talk about towing the line. Buchanan literally listed off flaw after flaw, mistake after mistake, including making Iraq “…our own West Bank of 23 million Iraqis.” As veteran pollster John Zogby has repeatedly said, if George W. Bush wins this election, it will be more because of the mistakes of the challenger than any sudden surge of support for the incumbent. John Kerry has got the message; registered and likely voter polls across the nation and in all fifty states show Kerry making gains in how best to fight terrorism and how to best handle Iraq, two of Bush’s strongest suits. Compound that with the fact that the Democrats this year have registered more voters than Republicans have, and in key states such as Missouri, Iowa and Florida, all of which are within the margin of error for each candidate, and we see a possible Kerry victory. However, there are many things that could go wrong in two weeks, many mini-”October Surprise” dealings, many terrorists to suddenly be apprehended. Karl Rove and the conservative strategists have said it enough: the fatal flaw of the Bush- Cheney ‘04 re-election campaign is arrogance in the face of opposition. Bush still does not feel the need to justify himself against any of John Kerry’s claims, and this is eating into his personal credibility base, a focal point of his 2000 campaign, and perhaps the one facet overall that resulted in his victory. John Kerry was not expected to surge through the three debates and into a dead heat. For George W. Bush to be re-elected, several pollsters and conservative pundits have cited, he will have to defy all electoral history. No man has ever been re-elected to the Office of the President with a majority of voters agreeing the country is heading down the wrong path, approval ratings in the high forties, and a dead heat with the challenger. If one state is to be picked from the field to be “The Next Florida,” as CNN describes it, that state would have to be Ohio. Polls have been volatile and erratic in the Buckeye State, and the general popularity of both candidates has fluctuated. Indeed, given the voting history of Ohio in the past ten elections, it defines exactly what a swing state is. Win Ohio, John Kerry, and the Presidency will follow. ------------ About the author: Max Burns is a 17-year-old conservative Democrat, writer, pollster, pundit and aspiring Indiana politician. He currently works for the Indiana Democratic Party and writes for The Progressive Voice). Read the fantasy-fiction novel "Alcardia". Email: DeMBurns@gmail.com Tell a friend about this site! ------------ |
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