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May 27, 2004 I have been watching science fiction since I was about 8 years old. I remember that back then there were only two species: Humans (Earthlings) and Martians and of course the Martians were always the bad guys. They even made one movie starring Yvonne Craig where Martians came to Earth just to kidnap 6 women to repopulate their planet. Then Star Trek opened and showed a universe where there were more than two species. Now it was up to four major species, two good (Humans and Vulcans) and two bad (Romulans and Klingons). Of course there were a few more but they were usually based on the one of the main four. Later generations of Star Trek added new major species (Ferrengi, Cardassian and Bajoran) but not really that many. Ok, I couldn’t sleep, there was not a single thing on the 150+ channels my cable company offers and there was no way my eyes were shutting for anything. So I decided, at about 4:14 a.m., to figure out how many possible different alien civilizations there could be just in our quarter of the galaxy, the Alpha Quadrant I think the crew of the USS Enterprise calls it. Ok, there are supposed to be about 100,000,000,000 stars in the Milky Way galaxy. Since we are working with a quadrant we’ll take 25 percent of those or about 25,000,000,000. Now that includes every star whether it is new, dying or whatever. Using what I call the Rule of Ten we can get an approximate number of stars with an Earth like planet and the number of planets with possible life. Out of the 25,000,000,000 stars let’s figure that only 10 percent will be about the same age as our Sun. That would take the number down to 2,500,000,000. These stars would be yellow with about the same temperature and size and our star. This age would also give any debris surrounding the star to form into planets. Of those 10 percent, or 2,500,000,000 would actually form planets. Now, we have 8.5 planets in our solar system. The .5 being Pluto, which scientists cannot decides on its status as a planet or a large ice covered rock. Most of the interstellar planets found by researchers have been determined to be the size of Jupiter and Saturn. This is just a guess going by the shift in the respective star when the planet orbits it. However, let’s use the Rule of Ten again and say that roughly 250,000,000 stars have planets the size of Earth and reduce it again by saying the ten percent of those stars have rocky type planets. So now we are down to 25,000,000 stars. Now, the planet would have to be the right distance from its star. We are 93,000,000 miles from the Sun. That gives us just the right amount of sunlight, heat and radiation. Any closer and we’d burn, and farther away and we’d freeze. Out of those 25,000,000 ten percent would have planets in just the right orbit to sustain life. So, we now have 2,500,000 planets with a small chance. Here comes the good stuff, lastly we have the planets where the right combination of lightening, chemicals and pure luck threw together a mix that grew, moved and became alive. Now, these would include everything to slime to bugs to intelligent creatures. So the Rule of Ten would knock the number of stars with any form of life in their system down to 250,000. If course, this would include planets like Mars whose life has come and gone. Let’s do it one more time. Let’s say that only ten percent (25,000) of those life supporting planets have developed into multi-celled creatures, gained intelligence and became like us… for the most part. We now have 25,000 stars with planets orbiting them, supporting life and that life grew to at least post industrial revolution status. Not too bad of a neighborhood. As of today their have been 166 stars with planets orbiting them. As I said these are the gas giants that are like those in our outer solar system. I am sure that with at least 25,000 possible civilizations out there someone we are looking at is looking back at us and using the Rule of Ten to figure out if we are here. ------------ About the author Robert Taylor: I am 47 years old and a BIG Star Trek fan. I watch everything I can on science fiction and have written a sci-fi suspence book called Eleana. It is about an Egyptian princess made immortal after she was killed for crimes against egypt. Her lust to die creates havoc in two time periods. It can be found at http://www.lulu.com/content/44675 Email: trobi1021@hotmail.com Tell a friend about this site! ------------ |
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