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NFL Conference Championships Analysis

By Claxton Graham
Jan. 16, 2006

Anybody got a towel I can borrow? There’s some egg I need to wipe off my face.

After nailing three of my four picks on Wild Card Weekend, I could only muster a split on my picks in the Divisional Playoffs. The Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos came through; the Indianapolis Colts and the Washington Redskins did not.

As my wife is a big Pittsburgh Steelers fan, she’s extremely happy that they’re playing in the AFC Championship Game this coming Sunday. I, on the other hand, will disavow my love of Washington, and risk the wrath of those in Redskin Nation, until the preseason.

There are four survivors who will be playing for two spots in football’s biggest game. On Sunday night, we’ll know who will be packing their bags for Detroit. Here’s who I’m picking to make the trip:

AFC Championship Game – Pittsburgh at Denver, 3 PM on Sunday, January 22, on CBS. By beating the Indianapolis Colts 21-18 in the Divisional Playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers became the first number-six seed to reach a conference championship game. They’ve also put themselves in position to become only the second team in the Super Bowl era to win three playoff games on the road (the 1985 New England Patriots did it first).

Pittsburgh put serious pressure on Indianapolis’s relatively light offensive line, making Peyton Manning uncomfortable in the pocket and forcing him to make mistakes. They will have to work a lot harder to break through Denver’s offensive line, which is one of the most powerful in the league.

Jake Plummer has played very well this season, cutting down on the number of interceptions and leading the Broncos to their first playoff win in the post-Elway era. Of course, beating the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots is a feather in the cap, but will it be a feather that tickles the team into complacency?

Steelers fans will be especially anxious on Sunday, because each minute ticks down what will likely be the end of the career of running back Jerome Bettis, one of the team’s most beloved players. But here’s a good-news/bad-news stat that anyone who beholds the black and gold better not read: Under Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh is 1-5 in the AFC Championship Game, with all six games at home. I have a sneaking feeling that the Steelers will win this one, on the road, because Jake Plummer will make a big mistake at a critical time.

Final score: Pittsburgh 24, Denver 20

NFC Championship Game – Carolina at Seattle, 6:30 PM on Sunday, January 22, on Fox. When the Seattle Seahawks take the field on Sunday, they will be the first team in NFL history to play for a championship in both conferences. They’re hoping that this visit to the conference championship will go a little better than the first one, way back at the end of the 1983 season. That year, they got crushed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Raiders 30-14 in Los Angeles.

This time, the Seahawks will be at home, and they will be bringing a defense that surprised a struggling Redskin offense. Even without MVP Shaun Alexander, they managed to pick apart the vaunted Washington defense. Unlike the Redskins, however, the Carolina Panthers did not allow a single point in the playoffs until near the end of the second quarter of their divisional tilt against Chicago. Even then, they continued to come up with big stops in closing out a 29-21 win.

The key for Seattle will be getting the offense going early and often. Alexander is expected to play, but how effective will he be coming off that head injury? Other players will have to step up and give quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who threw for 215 yards and a touchdown against Washington, some help.

For the Panthers, road-weariness has to be setting in. They’ve played two very tough, very physical games in New York and Chicago. Do they have enough left in the tank for one more road win? I like the Panthers, but the Seahawks are for real.

Final score: Seattle 27, Carolina 14

The NFL has built in a bye-week between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, as a fail-safe in the event that a makeup week is needed. While this is indeed a prudent thing to do, it just means that, for two weeks, football fans are subject to a whole bunch of analysts, armchair and otherwise, talking about the big game. It also brings the onset of the dreaded Football Withdrawal. But that’s the subject of another column.

Check out http://www.nfl.com for all the latest football updates and news.

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About the author: Claxton Graham has written a number of articles for Useless Knowledge. He works as a business systems analyst.

Email: scifiwriter8502@email.com


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