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Risk Assessments And Contingency Plans

By Michelle Malsbury
Sept. 5, 2005

This past week has shown us more than ever the importance of having a well thought out risk assessment and contingency plan because according to most accounts New Orleans had none! Here was a city below sea level with no real plan for broken levee's or anything past a category three hurricane. This is a major faux pas in my humble opinion. Who is to blame here and why?

The Mayor was certainly remiss as were all other city, county, and state officials for not having an advance plan for hurricane or flood evacuation and for not forcing ALL of their citizens to leave. They, the leaders and lay people of that tri-state area impacted by Katrina, had ample warning that this dangerous storm was going to strike so they cannot claim they were blindsided. They had days to plan and organize their evacuation processes and disaster responses afterward. How can they continue to blame everything on the Federal government when they are the first string so to speak? Where were their risk assessment and contingency plans? What could have been mitigated beforehand?

The latest media tallies say there may be as many as 10,000 dead (ESPN, Monday, September 05, 2005) from this hurricane. Could this have been prevented with a little contingency planning? I believe so. Let me explain how things should have transpired.

What is a risk? A risk is where you take certain actions without knowing for sure what the results might be. All local, county, state, and federal government should be forced to protect their citizens for any number of risks. In doing so they need to provide clear rules, guidelines, and regulations and be fair in their enforcement of them.

Planning and organizing are primary functions of all leaders. There needs to be in place a chain of authority for any given situation and they need to be able to imagine the unimaginable. Communication is vital to setting any plan into motion and from all first hand accounts of this disaster there was scant to no communication between departments which made this even worse.

In the planning stages you need to define the scope of this undertaking, plan activities that will create a smooth and seamless evacuation or risk mitigation plan. You will need to be able to some degree to forecast the duration of time and estimate approximate amounts of money needed to set things in motion. Impact and probability should also be figured into any forecast. Resources need to be planned and allocated. New Orlean's City staff should have identified as many potential risks to any given disaster possible, estimated their impact, and probability of occurrence so they could be prepared.

Under the heading or organizing, they should quantify their risk responses according to priority, organize their staff, and develop teams to handle the various tasks outlined in their overall plans. A chain of command needs to be in place so each team or department knows; who is involved, who to report to, how to measure their progress, and how to keep all departments and teams informed and working towards the same end.

Many factors can and do influence what projects succeed and which fail. Funding, resources, priorities, and politics all factor into how well your plan is enacted. Power and resources should all be made equally available to those people most impacted by any disaster. What can we learn from this sad lesson?

All private individuals, businesses, and governments can make use of the four P's for any and all plans. Place-where to meet or gather, procedures-what to do, people-who is doing it, and policies-order of duties. All duties and tasks need to be specifically outlined and determined prior to implementation of any plan. People need to be adequately trained and educated in how to deal with any given disaster so the plans unfold smoothly, waste is eliminated, and efficiency is maximized.

Many independent organizations offer comprehensive plans for risk assessment and mitigation as well as contingency plans. These are available on line or as courses at most major universities. No matter what station you hold in life it is a good idea to have those plans in place.

Reference:

Meredith and Mantel (2000) Project Management; A Managerial Approach (Special Edition Series) Wiley and Sons, NY

Prosser, Steve (2005) Lectures for UOP on-line, MGT 573

UOP eResource, MGT 573

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About the author: Michelle Malsbury was born and raised in Champaign, Illinois. She attended Parkland College and the University of Illinois before graduating from the University of Phoenix with her degree in Business Management. Currently she is working on her master’s degree in Organizational Management while concurrently pursuing her lofty writing ambitions. Ms. Malsbury moved to south Florida in 1983 and resides between the Keys and Apalachicola, allowing her to experience the seasonal fluctuations between the southernmost and nearly northernmost beauty in the state of Florida.

Travels have taken her from Europe through the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico, and across much of the United States. Michelle has been a bartender, real estate agent, flight attendant, beauty contestant, yacht broker, and commodities broker over the years, but writing is her passion.

She enjoys outdoor activities like sailing, waterskiing, hiking, bike riding, working out, and fishing as well as reading, music, theatre, playing with her two amusing pets (Abu Chez, her 6 year old Australian Blue Heeler and Zack, her two year old yellow tabby cat) and writing.

Michelle is a regular featured author on the web site Useless-Knowledge.com and enjoys exchanging points of view with her comrades there.

“Three Years With Adonis” is the first to be published of several books that she has written. In addition to “Three Years With Adonis”, she has authored four other books and three screenplays while continuing to explore all that life hands her.

Check out my new web sites. They are; www.3yearswithadonis.com, www.threeyearswithadonis.com, and www.MichelleKayeMalsbury.com.



Email Michelle Malsbury: zackywacks@aol.com


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