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Nov. 27, 2005 Despite his father’s urgings, 52-year old Jeb Bush, 43rd Governor of Florida has expressed no desire to become the 44th President of the United States. Few believe him, citing the fact that as a two-term Governor, he will be ineligible to seek reelection in 2005. In 1973 Jeb graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Texas at Austin. He earned a Bachelor’s degree in Latin American Studies. His ability to speak Spanish and form alliances has made him immensely popular among Latinos and the large number of Independent voters, in a state largely Democratic. This would make him an attractive addition to the GOPs ticket. Bush lost his first bid for Governor to Lawton Chiles (1994), but won in his second try (1998), defeating Buddy MacKay; this after serving for two years as the state’s Secretary of Commerce. He is experienced. \If he gets the GOP nod, can he afford to have a VP who is more dynamic—say John McCain, or Rudolph Giuliani? Prior to George W. Bush’s official reelection campaign in 2004, many Republicans felt Vice-President Dick Cheney should be replaced on the ticket by former New York City mayor Rudolph (Rudy) Giuliani. Rumor was that Cheney, who because of age and well-documented health problems, sat in on the meetings debating whether or not Rudy’s presence could strengthen the ticket. Rudy Giuliani was once a Democrat, then an Independent before finally settling on the Republican party. In 1981, Giuliani was named Associate Attorney General, the fourth highest position in the Department of Justice. Two years later he was appointed U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. In 1989 Giuliani lost his first mayoral bid to David Dinkins, but derailed Dinkins’ bid for reelection in 1993, winning by 82,000 votes of nearly 2 million cast. Giuliani’s leadership was praised as he led New Yorker’s through the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Time magazine called him, “...the gutsy decision maker, balancing security against symbolism, overruling those who wanted to keep the city buttoned up tight, pushing key institutions--from the New York Stock Exchange to Major League Baseball--to reopen and prove that New Yorkers were getting on with life. He was the crisis manager, bringing together scores of major players from city, state and federal governments for marathon daily meetings that got everyone working together. And he was the consoler in chief, strong enough to let his voice brim with pain, compassion and love.” But his background is not free of scandal, which includes an affair and a very public divorce. Furthermore, black leaders despise him for protecting police officers involved in the Diallo shooting, where the unarmed victim—who was shot 41 times—was portrayed as a criminal and his record cited publicly. Furthermore, he remained silent after the police broomstick sodomizing of Abner Louima. While serving as U.S. Attorney, he was criticized for orchestrating several high-profile arrests only to later drop charges for lack of evidence. Another New Yorker may also vie for the GOPs presidential nod: Govermor George Pataki, who has also been mentioned as vice-presidential material. Other Gop suitors could be Bill Frist, Colin Powell, Condoleezza Eice and even Alan Keyes. A TradeSports poll taken more than a year ago showed the following preferences: John McCain (Arizona Senator), 21.8. Not popular among conservative wing of the Republicans but has an image of being a “straight shooter” and an elder statesman. His age might be a factor. Former New York mator Rudy Guiliani, 17.8. His popularity is holding steady. I expect him to be somewhere on the GOP ticket. Bill Owens (Colorado Governor), 12.6 ; Tennessee Senator Bill Frist, 12.1; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 10.1; Florida Governor, Jeb Bush polled 8.0, which would probably quadruple if he throws his hat into the ring—and I bet he will. Others of note and their polling numbers: George Allen (Senator from Virginia), 5.5; Colin Powell, 4.7; Tom Ridge, 3.5; Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, 2.2, Condeleeza Rice, 2.2; California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, 1.6; Illinois Governor Tommy Thompson, 1.4; New York Governor George Pataki, 1.3 and Vice-President Dick Cheney, 0.6. Cheney has made it clear that he will not run as has Powell. and Schwarzenegger is ineligible. Ridge resignation as head of Homeland Security might be an indication that he can’t stand the pressure. Thompson, Allen and Hagel seem to have also-ran written all over them. However, Hagel is getting more and more media time and is from the heartland (Nebraska) which could be a plus as he isn’t likely to outshine the head of the ticket. The poll numbers are obviously dated, as Rice’s popularity has grown, as has that of Romney and Frist. I’m not sure that Owens is known outside of Colorado. The Democratic polling went as follows: New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favorite with 34.1% (up to 43 in a more recent poll); She is followed by the junior Senator from Indiana Evan Bayh, 13.0; John Edwards, 9.5; New mexico Governor Bill Richardson, 8.8; Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd, 6.8; Al Gore, 5.7 (who is up to 14% in the more recent Rasmussen poll); 2994 Democratic nominee John Kerry, 5.5; Ed Rendell (Governor of Pennsylvania), 5.1; Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack, 5.0; Senator Joe Biden, 4.5; Howard Dean, 3.8; Tennessee Senator Harold Ford, 3.1; General Wesley Clark, 2.7 ; Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy, 2.5; Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 2.2 and the junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama taking up the rear with 1.9%. Again we see how the poll’s data can only provide a general idea of the 2008 race, as Gore has nearly tripled his support in recent months. Dean is the party leader and ruined his chances of a political comeback with his “I Have A Scream” speech. I see neither Leahy, Ford, Dean, Obama, Lieberman, Rendell or Dodd having a realistic chance. I think Kerry has some appeal, but he had his shot and blew it. Richardson might serve the ticket well if the Dems decide to try and lure Latino voters. Edwards may be a viable candidate but I can’t see him topping Clinton nor Gore. Bayh could be a big surprise like Kerry was in 2004. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards will probably battle it out, while Kerry may sneak in and make it a three-person race. I can’t see a ticket combining any of these three. Clark, who along with Howard Dean was one of the pre-primary favorites in 2004 doesn’t register with most Dems. In fact, neither he or Dean could outlast the faceless Dennis Kucinich, who may also throw his hat into the ring. Why he would is a mystery that would leave Robert Stack shaking his head. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson could make things interesting if the Latino vote turns out and could angle his way onto the ticket. My predictions for 2008 (subject to change): Clinton edges out Edwards and names Richardson to the ticket. The GOP is a much tougher case to crack, but I think Giuliani will be on the ticket as the Vice-President with Jeb Bush winning a hard-fought battle against John McCain and a surprisingly tough Condoleezza Rice if she runs and can stay in the race after the first few primaries. Rice could be the choice for Vice-President, but only if Giuliani pulls a Howard Dean and lets his mouth overload his—well, you get my drift. As for the general election, I think it will be too close too call. The Demos must realize that if they don’t win this time around, it will be many years before they do so again. In fact, if the Dems somehow get walloped in 2008, a legitimate third party might emerge by 2016. Sources: Profile of Jeb Bush, Wikipedia “Elder Bush says Jeb should seek White House,” USATODAY.com, June 1, 2005 Joseph Farah, “Giuliani to replace Cheney on ticket?” WorldNetDaily, June 9, 2004 Eric Pooley, “2001 Person of the Year: Rudy Giuliani Profile,” Time Magazine, December 2001 The Amazing Kreskin (just kidding). ------------ About the author: Timothy Stelly is a 46-year old California native with a wide variety of interests-from fishing to politics, which have a lot in common: Both require you to deal with worms and most of your time is spent idling. He is a former Democrat, believing that Party represents outdated ideas. He is officially registered as an Independent, choosing to keep his options open. Timothy is also the author of more than 80 screenplays and novels, two of which have been "published": "Tempest In The Stone" and "The Malice Of Cain", both available through PublishAmerica. He defines his writing style as "Hip-hop fiction; a cross between Richard Pryor and Richard Wright." His UK columns is written in a hard-edged style, but he is not yet a curmudgeon or a conservative. (Is that redundant?) After all, one of his favorite movies is "The Adventures of Milo and Otis." stellbread0.tripod.com Email: stellbread@yahoo.com Tell a friend about this site! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com and are not allowed to be posted on other websites. ARTICLE THIEVES WILL BE PROSECUTED! |
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