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Feb. 21, 2005 A group of professors of economics and history have become quite famous, often writing for big-circulation periodicals such as The New York Times, and being interviewed on TV as experts. Many of them got their Ph.D. degrees soon after the Vietnam War, when it was "in" to be politically leftist, so the scholars who got tenure during those years were often sympathetic to "socialism." An ordinary citizen who believed the scholars' predictions would conclude that only an ignoramus could vote for either of the last few decade's presidential candidates named George Bush. During the recent summer of 2004, those academic scholars predicted that our national debt would produce terrible inflation, and the Middle East situation would deteriorate hopelessly in the hands of Republican leadership, and that Kerry would probably win the election. Our national debt was growing, but prosperity seemed to be what was growing in Communist China, according to reports. However, this might be a good time to give some thought to what has actually happened, compared to what the academic "experts" predicted. Of course, any such comparisons might get switched around from "Wrong!" to "Yes, and I told you so!" during the coming year. But the present trends are not fulfilling the left- liberal prophesies of those highly visible professors. First of all, it is now indelible in the historical record books that the majority of U.S. voters did favor George W. Bush, in spite of what various experts predicted in their TV interviews and newspaper columns. Secondly, inflation is still at a low level, probably because of low cost imports plus the threat of well-controlled interest rates at the Federal Reserve Bank. Even the price of petroleum has not risen very much, and the the output of Iraqi oil wells is slowly but surely increasing. If our Government had not held down taxes and also provided low-interest borrowing, unemployment would probably have soared in the U.S., mainly because of global competition. This could have led to a "vicious circle" of disastrous recession, where the unemployed could not afford to buy the things that might lead to their eventual re-employment. Our big debts are worrisome, but as long as there is no serious inflation, deep unemployment levels would be much worse. Around the November elections, my big-city friends, who fancied themselves as being true "intellectuals," tried to convince me that Messrs. Ridge and Ashcroft were some kind of "fascists." (Sometimes that label was pinned on me also, for saying that draconian measures were absolutely necessary to prevent terrorism.) Now, however, the fact is that there has not been even one single extremist-Muslim bomb exploded in the United States since the 9/11 atrocity. I consider that to be a historically great accomplishment of the Bush administration, considering the generally open nature of our society. Of even greater importance for the history books is the fact that true democratic elections were held in Afghanistan and Iraq, in spite of doomsday predictions by the famous professors. The elections were not models of perfection, but neither are ours in Europe or America --- and the system does work. Participation was quite high, including a great deal of voting by Muslim women. The fruitless suicide bombings by extremists showed the whole world the evilness of their perpetrators, although it has been a terrible way to prove a philosophical point (as evildoing always is). Another thing of great importance is the fact that Communist China is becoming more capitalist by the minute. It is still true that hundreds of millions of Chinese in the central and western regions are mired in abject poverty on collectivised farms. However, millions have migrated to the coastal cities and are enjoying various levels of fast-increasing wealth, obtained by working in capitalist style factories. There is a very active stock market, and enterprising citizens have started their own companies. American owned or joint- venture factories have sprouted like mushrooms after the rain, but they are almost entirely near the east coast. Eventually, the example of socialist poverty versus capitalist prosperity can not fail to influence the political views of the whole billion people, and hopefully of the Chinese government itself. President Bush can not be considered to be an extreme conservative, having presided over a huge Government spending program, and having appointed African Americans and women in critically important jobs. His followers are what Europeans might call "a center-right coalition." Regardless of what you might think of his personality, his path has kept us away from some extremely dangerous reefs and shoals. ------------ About the author: Dan Shanefield is a retired engineering prof, who worked at Bell Labs and then at Rutgers University. He wrote the book "Industrial Electronics for Engineers, Chemists, and Technicians". Visit his website or email Dan Shanefield: shanefield@ieee.org Tell a friend about this site! ------------ |
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