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Dec. 12, 2009 For the past two years I've been researching and writing a book entitled Georgia Before People: Land of the saber-tooths, mastodons, vampire bats, and other strange creatures. My work is a comprehensive look at the Pleistocene ecology of southeastern North America as seen through the eyes of a layman, and it is intended for people with little scientific background. However, I've thoroughly researched the scientific literature, so it's an accurate and exhaustive review of the subject. While researching this topic, I've unavoidably come across the science behind climate change. Therefore, I wrote a chapter about global warming. The controversy surrounding the theory that the increase in human released (or anthropogenic) greenhouse gases is causing global warming is misleading because there is no real controversy among climate scientists--they're in near unanimous agreement that anthropogenic warming is occurring. Almost all scientists who disagree with the theory work for conservative think tanks funded by industry. In my view this eliminates their credibility. No matter what the naysayers claim, however, there are two facts that can't be disputed: 1) humans are releasing greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitric oxide) at an unprecedented rate, and 2) five out of the last ten years have been the hottest on record, coinciding with a steady increase since the 1970's. Because industry controls governments around the world, it's unlikely the increase in greenhouse gases will ever be reversed until we run out of fossil fuels. The supply of retrievable fossil fuels is finite and we will run out, but not for hundreds of years. Even progressive measures, such as cap and trade, will do little to slow down the increase in greenhouse gases. Parts of the cap and trade concept are beneficial. For example big polluting corporations can offset their carbon footpring by buying vast stretches of forests, which store carbon, so at least more wildlife habitat will be protected. Nevertheless, cap and trade is just an excuse to allow big industry to continue pumping out greenhouse gases. Because business interests and greed control all governments around the world, nothing will ever be done to significantly reduce this form of pollution, despite the much publicized summit in Copenhagen. I've concluded that we're just going to have to brace ourselves for this inevitable climate change. Let's hope the upcoming climate change will not be as drastic as the wild swings tht occurred duirng the most recent Ice Age--the Wisconsin, which lasted from about 118,000 years BP to 11,000 years ago. The climate changed decisively and quickly, usually in a matter of decades, alternating between cold arid conditions during glacial advances to rainy mild cycles during glacial meltwater pulses. The little Ice Age, which lasted from 1350 AD-1850 AD was the biggest climate swing in recorded history, yet compared to the climatic upheavals of the Wisconsin Ice Age, it was barely a blip. Nevertheless, the little Ice Age caused massive crop failures, starvation, and a breakdown in societal structure. Paradoxically, global warming could cause a sudden onset Ice Age. If the polar ice cap melts rapidly enough, a massive stream of ice bergs and cold fresh water could flood the north Atlantic gulf stream current, a factor that keeps our current temperatures moderate. This would shut down the warming "conveyor belt" current, causing average annual temperatures to suddenly plunge. This is not some science fictional scenario--it's known as a Heinrich event, named after the scientist who discovered evidence of past massive meltwater pulses. The most recent one occurred 12,500 years ago. The last glacial maximum, the coldest period of the Wisconsin Ice Age, lasted from 28,000 BP-14,300 BP. A sudden warming period beginning about 14,000 years ago caused an ice dam on the St. Lawrence River to break, releasing huge quantities of ice bergs, debris, and freshwater into the north Atlantic, shutting down the gulf stream and resulting in the Younger Dryas cold period when average annual temperatures dropped as much as 15 degrees Fahrenheit in a span of less than 40 years. Geological evidence of Heinrich events includes drop stones (actually boulders) on the ocean floor that had been carried by icebergs, and iceberg keel scours as far south as off the coast of South Carolina, where the big, jagged slabs of ice dragged across the ocean floor. More likely, global warming will simply lead to increasingly uncomfortable warm summers. The rise in sea level will inundate the coastal regions. Alligators and invasive pythons will expand their range north. Worse yet, mosquitoes carrying tropical diseases will invade most of the U.S. This warming is also not unprecedented. The Sangamonian Interglacial lasted from 132,000 BP-118,000 BP. Temperatures were mostly warmer than those of today--alligators lived as far north as Missouri, cypress swamps grew in Illinois, and most of Florida was underwater. I would like to add a skeptical note, however, about climate scientists. While researching my book, I asked over a dozen climate scientists how they could determine whether changes in the climate are natural or manmade. I didn't get a single satisfactory answer. Most didn't even respond. I've contacted other scientists regarding other topics in such fields as geology, and vertebrate zoology, and most have responded to my queries, no matter how obscure the subject.
But no matter whether climate change is natural or manmade, we need to get ready for the inevitable.
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