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Dec. 5, 2009 All wars are stupid. But getting embroiled in an Afghan adventure in the 21st. century is stupidity or ignorance beyond belief. To understand the geopolitical mess that is that corner of Asia that defies a proper name, we must look at the ingredients that go into this stew. India comes first. You will ask, whatsammater with you, don’t you know your geography? I will repeat, India comes first. Kashmir second. Pashtunistan, Baluchistan, Waziristan, and Pakistan follow. And lastly comes Afghanistan. Except for India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, the countries listed are not recognized as countries by the United Nations. However, they do exist, surround Pakistan and are capable of war. We can’t proceed without mentioning the Durand Line of 1893. I quote from The Encyclopedia Britannica: After the British conquered the Punjab in 1849, they took over the ill-defined Sikh frontier to the west of the Indus River, leaving a belt of territory between them and the Afghans that was inhabited by various Pashtun tribes. Questions of administration and defense made this area a problem. Some of the British, members of the so-called stationary school, wanted to retire to the Indus; others, of the forward school, wanted to advance to a line from Kābul through Ghaznī to Qandahār (Kandahār). The Second Anglo-Afghan War (1878–80) discredited the forward advocates, and the tribal area was divided into roughly equal spheres of influence. The British established their authority by indirect rule up to the Durand Line, at the cost of a number of tribal wars; the Afghans left their side untouched. In the mid-20th century the area on both sides of the line became the subject of a movement for Pashtun independence and establishment of an independent state of Pakhtunistan. In 1980 approximately 7.5 million Pashtuns were living in the area around the Durand Line. To define it in one sentence: The Durand Line was a fictional line that established the border between British India and Afghanistan. In 1947, Huge numbers of Muslim refugees from India moved north and established Pakistan, a country independent from India. Pakistan quickly claimed the Durand line as the border with Afghanistan. Pakistan was never able to extend its authority up to the Durand line. The best it managed to do was form tribal militias that accepted Pakistani orders when they felt like it. Pakistani officials were tolerated as long as they did nothing to aggravate the Pashtuns, Balochis or Waziris. Without the Durand Line, Pakistan looses about 30% of its claimed territory, converting Pakistan into a long, narrow strip of land vulnerable should another war with India breakout. Pakistan works hard at having good relations with and influence in Afghanistan as this increases its strategic defense depth. For opposite reasons, India also works at having influence in Afghanistan. Toward the south of the Durand Line, Balochis and Waziris fight the Pakistanis to achieve independence. If the tribes (who are really nations) were to have their way, Pakistan would lose huge tracts of land and the cities of Peshawar and Queta. Without a friendly regime, ruler or government in Afghanistan, Pakistan is toast, it could not survive a war with India. Therefore, Pakistan has no choice but to have good relations with all Afghan factions. The New Taliban, which now exists on both sides of the Durand Line and the weak government of Hamid Karzai. Some three years ago, Karzai wanted to hold a Loya Jerga, the traditional meeting of Afghan chieftains where all problems are discussed, debated and resolved by consensus. That was outside the American thinking box and the Americans vetoed it. The Bush Administration wanted elections American style and that’s when it lost the war. At this point, Karsai became outspokenly independent and the Americans tried to replace him with Abdullah Abdullah. Elections and dethroning of Karzai failed. For years, the U.S. been urging, pressuring, cajoling threatening Pakistan to wage war on the Pashtuns. That is the same as asking someone to cut his own throat. The Pakistanis complied in some cases and provoked the Pashtuns to take up arms. Now the Pashtuns know Americans want to exterminate them. To make things worse, the U.S. has been developing a friendly policy toward India. This scares the bejeebies out of Pakistan. The U.S. is fighting a war with objectives no one can understand, with allies who would like to see the U.S. defeated and India who ends up the net winner regardless of who wins or looses. The Soviet Union went into Afghanistan to support the educated elite who wanted to convert Afghanistan into something resembling a modern state. Eight years, 15,000 dead soldiers later, they left. Soon, the Afghan civil war was back on. The elite fled. The Taliban controlled most of the country. When the U.S. invaded and supported the Northern Alliance, the Taliban (Pashtuns) fled across the Durand Line. The Pashtun elite returned to Kabul. When the Pashtuns realized that Americans came in as occupiers and not liberators and that Karzai was an American stooge, they took up arms. Pakistanis, Indians, Saudis, Tadjiks, Uzbeks are all involved in arming the Afghan opposition to Americans. The whole American and NATO force is surrounded. Supply convoys from the south are ambushed. Convoys from the north are ambushed, too. Slowly, slowly, the Afghans will wear down the friendless Americans. The Afghans are very good at dealing with invaders, they’ve been doing it for thousands of years. All the talk about training an Afghan Army loyal to Americans is wishful thinking. The view from the Pentagon is different. This schematic explains it all:
http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/finding-victory-in-a-plate-of-pasta/
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