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Aug. 17, 2008 The art of war is simple enough. Find out where your enemy is before his finds out where you are. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can, and keep consolidating your gains - Gen. Ulysses S. Grant (1822 - 1885) - American soldier and President. Less than six months from today at midday on Tuesday 20th January 2009 President George W Bush will vacate the White House and irrespective of the outcome of the November 4th 2008 presidential election, his successor is unlikely to persecute the war against terrorism with the same resolve. While neither this date nor this event may hold much significance for Sri Lankans, it is likely to influence any military or political solution that the government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa wishes to pursue to bring about an honourable peace and end the two and a half decade old armed separatist conflict afflicting the country. Irrespective of who succeeds President Bush, they are likely to re-examine the war against terrorism during their first 100 days in office and if the Resolution passed by the House of Representatives (HRES 1338 IH)*, on 10th July is any indication of the thinking evolving in Washington, the Rajapakase government will be under pressure from the White House and Congress to cease military operations and arrive at a political settlement while restoring the rule of law. While this may be the logical thing to do, however, the LTTE and its American lobbyist may have already crafted proposals that are beneficial to them, if and when in early 2009 the U.S calls for an end to the Rajapakse government’s military operations and the immediate restarting of peace negotiations with the Tigers. While almost weekly reports emanate of changing deadlines, given by President Rajapakse, his Ministers and the Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka of imposing a military solution to the conflict, however, the political and military leaders will have to take into account the growing impatience of both the people of Sri Lanka as well as of the international community (especially the EU), given the unbearable rise in the cost of living, the lack of improvement of the human rights and security situation in the south. Having been the victim of terrorism for more than 25 years it is unfortunate that Sri Lanka did not visibly champion the cause of the international community against terrorism in the post September 11 era as until then its population had been the victim of more suicide terrorist attacks than of any other member state of the United Nations. It is still not to late in the day for Sri Lanka to learn from the brilliant counterterrorism strategies recently implemented by Colombia with the assistance of the U.S. in crippling the drug profits-funded FARC insurgency that has been plaguing that country since 1964. President Álvaro Uribe has to be commended for courageously pursuing his “Policy of Democratic Security”. The secret of fighting terrorism is to think like terrorists, outthink them and then to act on it. As Sri Lankan forces continue their operations with vigour and for the first time since the conflict began are able to do so free from political interference or any other pressure, it is important to remember the cunningness of the LTTE, as like the real tiger it waits patiently to pounce on the unwitting or overconfident victim. Are we once again galloping into a Tiger trap in the vicinity of its lair? The LTTE is said to have a elaborate network of tunnels stretching for tens of kilometres and the Sri Lankan forces without much actionable intelligence, spies or turncoats within the LTTE may not have much idea of where they are and may like a prehistoric woolly mammoth fall into a LTTE bog and may then be attacked from all sides as it happened in Moohamale and in countless other instances in the past. The LTTE with access to Sri Lankan troop movements thanks to satellite images as well as spies within the government and its possible ability to eavesdrop on battlefield communications may have a few unthinkable surprises in store for the advancing forces. Napoleon cautioned that one should not fight with the same opponent too often as one tends to reveal ones strategy. The Asian Tribune in its edition of 21st June 2008 reported that the son of LTTE Chief Prabakaran, Charles Anthony “has developed a new chemical weapon capable of such a shock wave that could kill, permanently damage vision and hearing and also make women barren”. Does the LTTE have a dirty bomb? Will civilians face mass murder like never before? Will a major politico or army man be assassinated once the ceasefire is over? Are the Tigers saving the best for last? Is this Armageddon? What is the escape plan of Prabakaran? Does he have a submarine? Have we totally forgotten about the LTTE air force? It is speculated that the LTTE air force is hidden under of canopy of trees which are mounted on Lorries and they are moved whenever the sorties are necessary. The Sri Lankan Air Force is unable to see them as all it can see from above are trees. It is said that the first casualty of war is truth and one should never believe one’s own propaganda. Prabakaran has repeatedly said that the Sinhalese have a very short memory and if the experience of the past 25 years of conflict is anything to go by then this is certainly true. Insanity some have said is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Has the government learnt anything from past military debacles? While those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it, sadly, however, in the case of Sri Lanka it is: the thing we learn from history is that we do not learn from history. While continuing military victories are welcome as it is necessary for the government to bring the whole territory of the country under its sovereign rule and to thereby eliminate any armed challenge to its rule, however, such steps have to be accompanied by a holistic political devolution package which takes into account the interests of the majority as well as all those of all ethnic and religious minorities. Even MPs from the LTTE’s political wing the TNA should be invited to the All Party Representative Committee (APRC). It would be helpful if political and military leaders would not bank so much on a military solution and would also with equal vigour pursue a political solution and frequently publicise the progress made in this regard. Inter alia, any solution must put in place mechanisms for the peaceful resolution of long standing grievances, payment of compensation as well as address potential conflicts such as those arising from the rapidly changing religious denomination of the Sri Lankan populace from a Buddhism-Hindu majority to a Christian/Evangelical-Islamic/Sunni one. Given the influence of the well financed and well organised evangelical Christians and diasporic groups on any American president and their foreign policy, it will be important for the government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa to take meaningful and peaceful steps to end the armed separatist conflict before Tuesday 20th January 2009 when the 44th U.S. president takes office. We will only have ourselves to blame if we squander the last six months of the U.S.-led war against terrorism as such an opportunity may not arise again for a generation. The government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa has an opportunity to demonstrate to the world that it was able to resolve the armed separatist conflict by a two-pronged political and military solution in a manner that gave precedence to the former over the latter. Relevant links: *Calling on the United States Government and the international community to support a transition to sustainable peace in Sri Lanka by encouraging an international human rights monitoring... (Introduced in House) HRES 1338 IH 110th CONGRESS 2d Session IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES July 10, 2008 Mr. SHERMAN (for himself, Mr. PALLONE, and Mr. WELLER of Illinois) submitted the following resolution; which was referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs RESOLUTION http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c110:1:./temp/~c110ljn1Jy THE URIBE ADMINISTRATION’S DEMOCRATIC SECURITY AND DEFENSE POLICY http://www.presidencia.gov.co/sne/visita_bush/documentos/security.pdf Democratic Security and Defence Policy http://alpha.mindefensa.gov.co/descargas/Documentos_Home/Seguridad%20Democratica.pdf http://www.presidencia.gov.co/sne/visita_bush/documentos/security.pdf Prabhakaran’s son credited with new devastating chemical bomb www.asiantribune.com/?q=node/11876 Sri Lanka: International Religious Freedom Report 2007 Released by the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/irf/2007/90234.htm Christian Evangelicals and U.S. Foreign Policy www.cfr.org/publication/11341 From evangelical Christians, good news for McCain and Obama http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-ticket6-2008jul06,0,2022602.story Justice For Thamils Mission De-proscription of the LTTE, in the United States, Canada and around the world. Bring to justice through instituting grand jury proceedings against US citizens Gothabaya and Basil Rajapakse and Gen. Sarath Fonseka in the Sri Lankan cabinet and armed forces guilty of grave violations of human rights humanitarian laws and crimes against Tamils. Advocate the Tamil speaking people’s right to self-determination Bruce Fein Representing Justice For Thamils www.justiceforthamils.org ------------ Email Ravindra Wickremasinghe: ravindrabdw@hotmail.com Comment on this article here! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com. Please link to this article rather than copying and pasting it onto your site (which would be unauthorized and illegal). |
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