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1930's German Redux Or Maybe Not

By Wesley Mills
Apr. 4, 2008

Sure, there is the tired old cliché about “history repeating itself, blah, blah, blah,” but who hasn’t heard it before? This article is not sold out to history repeating anything, instead it is meant to simply show some of the curious and interesting and, yes, alarming happenings in Germany. Why Germany? Aren’t things tough all over? Absolutely. However, if the past is any indicator, Germany (at least in the past 200 years) has been the country that seems to be the most reactive to hard times. Let us not forget World War I. Sure, there were a lot of things that sparked it, but their economy was certainly one contributor. Then there was World War II and their whole Nazi thing, which can be directly attributed to their poor economy. At one point in the late 1920’s in Germany loaves of bread were selling for 1,000,000 German Marks. That seems a little steep for a nice beget does it not? So, one can understand why the Germans were so willing to listen to the author of Mein Kampf  when he burst on the scene and made promises to get their economy moving again. Well, at least one can partially understand it. The point is that Germany has always been willing, with an iron will, to do what it takes to survive, even if it meant concentration camps and totalitarianism coupled with despotism. In fact, the Germans, deep in the throes of a financial crisis in the 1930’s were more than willing to allow their constitution, laws, and entire governmental structure to be restructured if it meant a restructuring of their bankrupt economy. One could look at this restructuring as a declaration of chapter 11 bankruptcy which allows reorganization. However one sees it, the Germans in the 1920’s and 30’s wanted change and change they got. And this change was directly connected to the state and condition of their pocketbooks. It seems that any time any people are faced with very personal troubles of personal finances they are willing to take extraordinary measures to find alleviation. With all of this being the case, one has to wonder what looms on the horizon for the German economy and what steps they will take to repair their condition, a condition that mirrors the American and indeed much of the world’s economy.
The German economy is in trouble. Recently two of Germany’s largest banks have shown massive losses and one of them, BayernLB, has needed a 9.4 billion dollar rescue package in order to keep its head above water. The New York Times reports that  Bayerische Landesbank reported 4.3 billion euros ($6.7 billion) in write-downs from the subprime market collapse, double its previous estimate and the biggest of any German state bank. To add to the German economic difficulties, Germany, along with Spain, are the two biggest contributors to a Retail economic downturn within the European economy. (Germany showed a 1.6% decrease in retail spending.) As if all of this were not bad enough, apparently Germany is now producing homegrown terrorists who are carrying out suicide attacks in other countries. According to Jane’s a newspaper based in the UK, and dedicated to discussions of defense world terrorism,  “The Al-Qaeda linked IJU has strong and ongoing associations with German jihadist recruits…” and one of these recruits has recently carried out a March 3rd suicide bombing in Afghanistan. What is most interesting to note is the mention of “strong and ongoing associations” with recruits who have come directly from Germany. One has to wonder just exactly how many German recruits there are and where they are. And one can little doubt that the economic condition in Germany has added to the recruitment successes of Al-Qaeda in Germany.
There is, however, one bright spot in Germany’s economic future, and that is their reluctance to operate their government with a deficit. London’s Guardian reports, “Germany has reported a projected 2008 public-sector deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product to the European Union, the finance ministry said late on Wednesday.
This year's small deficit was due to a cut in corporate tax and a reduction in mandatory jobless benefit contributions, designed to help boost employment…”  Maybe then Germany has not only learned from the past, but has learned from past successes. Notice that they have taken to solving their economic woes by taking two important and significant steps: First, they have cut corporate taxes, and second, they have eased up on corporate restrictions and mandates. These steps have proven to create more jobs and put a light at the end of the economic tunnel for Germany. It will be interesting to see how successful they are. Perhaps the past that they have decided to repeat is, at least in some part, the past that secured a strong and prosperous economy for the United States in the 1980’s. If so, then the history will repeat itself and Germany will prosper. It is too bad that that history is totally disregarded by American politicians and those who would be in the oval office at least for the next four years.

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Email Wesley Mills: Wesley.Mills@esc.edu

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