• The increased and newly-aggressive US forces have pushed al-Qaeda in Iraq off balance, and the result has been a "dramatic" decrease in both sectarian violence and roadside bomb attacks.
• Top US commander in Iraq said the build-up of American forces in Baghdad since late January had produced positive out comes. These included the killing or capture of al-Qa'ida fighters, causing the terrorist group to lose influence with local Sunnis.
• The strategic gains against insurgents would lead to a changed and possibly longer-term role for Australian troops, shifting from security operations to a focus on training Iraqi soldiers and police.
• General Petraeus told The Australian during a face-to-face interview at his Baghdad headquarters there had been a 75 per cent reduction in religious and ethnic killings since last year, a doubling in the seizure of insurgents' weapons caches between January and August, a rise in the number of al-Qa'ida "kills and captures" and a fall in the number of coalition deaths from roadside bombings.
• "We say we have achieved progress, and we are obviously going to do everything we can to build on that progress and we believe al-Qa'ida is off balance at the very least," he said.
• Petraeus compared the previous condition of Ramadi to Stalingrad. The general told the newspaper that having to stay on defense had taken its toll on American strength and had emboldened the enemy. Switching to offense has changed everything, and AQI simply cannot contend with a modern army with initiative on its side.
• Petraeus will tell Congress that sectarian violence has dropped 75% since last December. He will also call that one of the most important measures of success, which makes sense, as the sectarian violence had been the biggest obstacle to political reconciliation.
• Roadside bombs continue to be the largest danger to American forces, but those have declined over the period of the surge as well. Eight of the last eleven weeks have seen reductions in these attacks, and now the rate is lower than it has been throughout Iraq in over a year. It's been AQI's weapon of choice, and as the US has put them on the run and captured more and more of their weapons caches; the less they have been able to use it.

It seems that the insurgent strategy of inflicting senseless violence in order to sway the US voting public will fail the plan will be well in effect before voting patterns become a factor, plus the fact that George Bush doesn’t care how much public opinion is swayed by this violence.

Each war is different from those preceding it and it is up to the General to find the correct formula. In the war against the communist HUK's in the Philippines the recipe for success was the distancing of the role of the US forces from the actual fighting by leaving it to Pilipino forces. President Magsaysay was careful in enlisting civilian support, the execution of 20,000 of them by the HUK's at the beginning of their campaign far from frightening the population in fact steeled their resolve to defeat this totalitarian enemy.

In the case of the British anti communist effort in Malaya they had an advantage similar to the earlier one in the Philippines, the local population enraged by the attacks causing them to lend their support to the British forces. They too found their recipe for success, in this case through the Department of Anthropology of the Malayan Museum. As the terrorist were pushed into the jungle their only means of succor was the food and shelter given them by the aboriginal jungle tribes. These had but one aim in life -the survival of the tribe-the CT's(Communist Terrorists)convincing them that the British were on the run from the Korean comflict.Their chiefs were taken into urban areas and shown such things as artillery firing at a distant hill, aircraft landing and taking of carrying troops, a parachute drop and such like.

Experts on their culture convinced them that it was better they cooperate with the British than with the CT's and, through the urge to better the lot of the tribe, they did, turning against the CT's and those who aided them.

When this Iraqi conflict is over we too will understand the strategy that went into the Allied campaign as from a distance it is easier to see the whole picture.

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About the author: Read Mike Haran's essays on history at http://www.geocities.com/manzikertca/

Email: manzikertca@yahoo.com

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