At the time of this statement Iran was heavily committed to its atomic and nuclear energy developmet programs, having plants located in: Bushehr, Daklovin, Gorgon, Isfahan, Karaz, Ma’allen, Kaleyah, Saghad, and in Teheran. Following the costly eight-year war with Iraq there was a major military build up and an increased amount of effort put into foreign policy .Main concerns at the time were:

• to defend against Iraq
• to establish a capability to deter the US from attacking Iran and hinder its ability to project force into the region
• to dominate the Gulf and to press outstanding claims against its Arab neighbours.
• to influence oil output levels, productions and price
• to have the ability to close the Straits of Hormuz during crisis (20% of the worlds oil passes through here) in exchange for its political leverage
• to deter Israel from attacking its nuclear structure

How will Iran accomplish the above?To quote Tamarlane who made his mark in the region."Experience has taught me that a clever plan does more than 10,000 warriors ."
Iran has been steadily building up its nuclear capability but leaving itself weak regarding conventional forces .It can fight on its border and in neighbouring countries but can not project conventional force abroad. In 1989 the majlis allocated $10b for a five year period for foreign arms procurement in support of its conventional arms build up .The slump in oil prices and the preceding eight year war with Iraq had not put crimp on this, although Irans majlis did cancel an $5b arms deal which included the acquisition of the MiG 29 fighter bomber.

There are two likely courses open to Iran using conventional force :invade Farah and Nimrod province in western Afghanistan or alternately ,invade Diyala,Wasit ,Maysan,and Al Basra provinces in eastern Iraq. The former action would put Iran in possesion of the oil pipe line traversing western Afghanistan and the natural gas fields of Turkmenistan ,the latter would give her control of the middle eastern oil outlet to the Arabian (Persian?)Gulf. With its emphasis on obtaining nuclear weapons in order to discourage a direct invasion Iran will be free to deploy its conventional forces, backed up by para(terrorist) military forces in these areas.

Assuming that she is successful how do these areas resist ?It is a given that the US or NATO forces will become involved but will be successful only at the conventional level,the terorist threat remaining.To quote the twentieth century military historian Liddell Hart."Force can always over come force given sufficient superiority in strength and skill ,it can not crush ideas ".

That religious fervor is a factor in warfare in the east is now a foregone conclusion and needs no elaboration.Into this mix we most also include the political factor.Iran is a cohesive populous country able to muster a great number of troops,albeit lightly armed .To quote yet another military historian.ADH von Bullow harking back to the 18th century "the American war is exceptionally remarkable and important as the beginning of a new political and military epoch. No more mass battles ,only a war of light troops ,the true model for all future wars."

He is referring to the defeat of highly trained British and Prussian regulars at the hands of light irregulars backed up by the resources of France.To be fair it must be pointed out that the British were operating on exterior lines and were defending a supply line never again equalled until the Second World War.

During the following French revolutionary war France's revolutionary army made much use of the lessons learned in America.Unable to fight the magnificent armies of the Hapsburg empire or Prussia in the traditional manner it utilized religious revolutionary fervor ,and the ability to raise vast numbers of troops through conscription. In England and other European countries no such conscription was possible as long tradition had favoured the raising of troops by means of local recruitment into the forces of the local baron or lord, who paid all expenses and eventually were reimbursed by the King.

During this period the French Tiraileurs , or light troops, were first brought into battle. They were used mainly in skirmish lines, away from the main fixed regimental units.They were able to take advantage of the nearest cover using soldiers skilled in various combat tactics ranging from: grenade throwing, to sniping,to the setting up of ambushes.At Jenna they inflicted a crushing defeat upon the proud armies of Austria.

Using manoeuvre and skilled application of force Napoleon went on to conquer nearly all of Europe. Where he came undone was against irregular forces.Now the shoe was on the other foot.Time after time the French army had defeated the forces of Spain ,even when backed up by the albeit smaller British army under General Moore ,who ,after a gallant holding action was forced to retreat following the battle of Corunna .When finally defeated in Spain by the newly constituted British army it was found that Wellington's forces were responsible for between 20% to 25% of the casualties inflicted upon the French, the rest were inflicted by the Spanish guerrillas.Napoleon march into the Papal States met no resistance, but again he was unsuccessful. This time he was defeated not by of force of patrtiotic fervour, but by politics.The Italians were more loyal to the Pope than they were to him .

Religious fervor or nationalism can make up the difference in military skill and numbers. This will apply to any future conflict concerning Iran and the above-mentioned regions. It will rely upon nuclear weapons to deter the US and with her conventional forces and will attempt to lay claim to these vital strategic areas .

In the past the fanaticism of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was over came by Iraqi conventional forces . Iran now fields a conventional force backed up by weapons of mass destruction. Countries having no great military strength but having fanatical fervour can make occupation impossible . Shia Iraq will resist Shia Iran as they are age old enemies not of the Arab brotherhood. Just as Iraq fought tooth and nail in order to defeat the Turkish Ottomans it is logical that it will do the same in order to eject the Persians.Similarly Sunni Afghanistan will make it impossible for Iran to occupy its westerly provinces.But then again maybe Iran already knows this.

Bibliograhy

• (ADH von Bullow :Geist NeuernKriegssystems P268. [ Homburg:BG Hoffman 1799]).
• Irans strategic Intentions and Capabilities:Edited by Patrick Clawson
  
• Institute for National Strategic studies.National defence
  University.Washington DC 1994

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