I want to see the Chicago Bears and the Indianapolis Colts both make it to Super Bowl XLI.  Not only would it mark the first time than an African-American coach led his team to the NFL’s showcase game, it would also guarantee that one of them would be the first to win it.

Tony Dungy has come close before, with both Tampa Bay and Indianapolis.  Lovie Smith has rebuilt the Monsters of the Midway into one of the league’s most formidable defenses, and has them one game away from South Florida.  No doubt, Chicago and Indy would make for a great Super Bowl contest.  But for that to happen, they each must be victorious on Conference Championship Sunday.

The NFL’s version of the Final Four doesn’t include any Cinderellas this year.  It involves three teams that, between them, have made eight Super Bowl appearances and captured five Super Bowl victories.  Both games should be memorable indeed.  Here’s what to watch for.    

NFC Championship Game – New Orleans at Chicago, 3 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, January 21, on Fox.  In my Divisional Playoffs Analysis, I made reference to the fact that history would repeat itself with respect to the New Orleans Saints.  After all, this is a team that prior to this past Sunday had only won one playoff game in forty seasons.  And although I was right, the outcome I predicted was wrong.  The Saints beat the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round 27-24, the same score they defeated them by in Week 6 of the regular season.

This is uncharted territory for New Orleans.  The Saints had never advanced beyond the divisional round until now and can only claim two playoff wins since beginning play in 1967.  To put that in perspective, their divisional rivals, the Carolina Panthers, who entered the NFL in 1995, have appeared in three NFC Championship Games in their first twelve seasons. 

The Chicago Bears, meanwhile, had to go into overtime to beat the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks in their Divisional Playoff tilt.  This is the third time in the post-merger NFL that the Bears have made it to the NFC title game.  Both games they were involved in were shutouts—a 23-0 loss at San Francisco at the end of the 1984 season, and a 24-0 win at home against the Rams at the end of the 1985 season.  Of course, they blew away New England in Super Bowl XX in—surprise, surprise—New  Orleans.

For the Saints to win, they must bring pressure to frustrate Rex Grossman, who is prone to making mistakes.  Grossman had a solid game against the Seahawks, going 21-for-38 for 282 yards, one touchdown and one interception.  He also led them on the drive that put kicker Robbie Gould in position to kick the game-winning 49-yard field goal in the extra session.

The Saints must also put the clamps on Chicago’s running game.  They allowed the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook to get 116 yards on the ground.  They cannot allow either Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson to rip off big gains.

The Bears have to bring pressure of their own to stop Drew Brees, who threw for 243 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia, and Deuce McAllister, who gained 143 yards on the ground.       

The weather is likely to be a factor in this contest.  The early forecasts call for mostly cloudy skies and a high temperature around the freezing mark (32 degrees Fahrenheit).  The irony is that if the Saints win, they have to go to Miami for their first Super Bowl appearance.  Miami, of course, is the only city that has hosted as many Super Bowls as New Orleans.  Whoever wins, though, needs to remember that there will be plenty of partying to be done on South Beach after the Super Bowl is over.

Final Score:  New Orleans 23, Chicago 17

AFC Championship Game – New England at Indianapolis, 6:30 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, January 21, on CBS.  For the first time in the history of the post-merger National Football League, the AFC Championship Game will be played indoors, thanks to the New England Patriots. 

I had a bad feeling about New England’s matchup against San Diego in the divisional round.  And, as bad feelings go for me, this one came to fruition before my very eyes.  As they’ve done so many times in the past, the Patriots got clutch plays and a little luck to take down the league’s best team in the regular season, in the hostile confines of Qualcomm Stadium.

But by virtue of the fact that New England is the lower seed, Indianapolis gets to return home to host this game.  This is a huge game for the Colts, and it seems that things aligned just right for them to get this chance.  Not only did they beat the conference’s number-two seed, the Baltimore Ravens, in a tough Divisional Playoff game, they did it with the weapon that New England relied on so heavily for its Super Bowl success. Adam  Vinatieri kicked five field goals in the Colts return to Baltimore, in a game defined by the defenses, and in the process set a new NFL record for most field goals all-time in the postseason. 

For the Colts to win, they must keep pressure on Tom Brady all day long.  San Diego successfully disrupted his rhythm when they blitzed, but when they rushed just their interior defensive linemen, Brady was able to hit on some clutch passes.  Indy must also get Joseph Addai going early, to set up Peyton Manning and that explosive passing game.

Here’s one stat that Indianapolis might be interested in.  New England beat San Diego despite the fact that LaDanian Tomlinson, the league’s MVP, amassed 187 yards from scrimmage (123 rushing, 64 receiving). 

It’s hard to pick against the Patriots.  After all, this is their fourth appearance in the AFC Championship Game in the last six seasons.  And New England is 5-0 all-time when playing for the conference title.  But they’re facing a Colts team that is fed up with coming up short AND has the advantage of being on their home field.  The irony in this game is that Vinatieri’s replacement, rookie Stephen Gostkowski, is also proving to be clutch.  Gostkowski hit three field goals at San Diego, including the game-winner from 31 yards out.  He might just have another notch on the belt before the end of the day this coming Sunday. 

Final Score:  New England 27, Indianapolis 24

The conference champions will meet on Sunday night, February 4, at Dolphin Stadium in Miami for Super Bowl XLI.  The coaching staffs of the conference runners-up will get a nice consolation prize, though—a trip to Honolulu to coach the AFC-NFC Pro Bowl on Saturday night, February 10, at Aloha Stadium. 

For the latest playoff news and information, visit http://www.nfl.com.

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