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Jan. 2, 2007 There are twenty-three months before the next Presidential election and already both Democrats and Republicans are elbowing to position themselves for their parties nomination. While the primary season is still some thirteen months away, it is never too early for the hope, hype and fund raising to begin. This sis sure to be followed by bombast, backstabbing and back room deals, as each candidate seeks to leave a mark (or stain) on the psyche of the American electorate. For some of the candidates (Hillary Clinton and John McCain, for example), the campaign began seconds after George W. Bush’s re-election. On the Democratic side, it is assumed that Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Al Gore, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich and perhaps Barack Obama will run. I suspect that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Montana Chieftain Brian Schweitzer will play prominent roles in the campaigns. Actually hitting the campaign trail may prove to be too rich for their blood, but like Dick Cheney before them, they could head the committee of the winning candidate and gain the inside track to the No. 2 spot on the ticket. A run by the 60-year old Dennis Kucinich reminds me of the New York Yankees during Spring Training: Looks good on paper and he’s plagued by high hopes, that will eventually result in an opening round collapse. Does anyone outside of this guy’s home state of Ohio even know him? My feeling is that the election is Hillary’s to lose. She has more money, better organization and technically speaking, more experience in the Oval Office, having co-chaired the Presidency with husband Bill for eight years. Richardson’s foreign policy expertise, especially in dealing with North Korea, will be invaluable for whichever campaign solicits his services. Gore and Kerry are also-rans who have flip-flopped, ran dull, disingenuous campaigns and who have already blown their lay-up opportunities. At the 2004 Republican Convention, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney said of Kerry’s flip-flopping, “(He) now tells us he has a clear position on the [war on terror]. He voted no on [Desert Storm] in 1991 and yes on [Desert Shield] today. Then he voted no on [troop funding], just after he'd voted yes. He's campaigned against the [war] all year, but says he'd vote yes today. This nation can't afford [presidential leadership] that comes in 57 varieties.” (Mitt Romney biography, Wikipedia.com) Both Gore and Kerry were involved in competitive campaigns with Bush, with Kerry garnering the second-highest number of popular votes in U.S. election history. However, running on memory does not translate to assured success. The same could be said for Joe Lieberman, assuming he tosses his hat in the ring as an Independent. Barack Obama could be positioning himself for the VP slot. His inexperience, being a first-term Senator from Illinois, might leave voters wary. (And think about it: Do you really think America is ready to elect a black President?) Obama’s presence in the race makes for a nice news story, and from where I sit, little else. However, if the Democrats lose, he could be the front-runner in 2012. Edwards has the Kennedy mystique: Charm and good looks, but that may not prove to be anything more than…well, charm and good locks. The Democrats lack a southern strategy, and trusting Edwards to give them credibility in that region of the country is errant thinking. Edwards might have the inside track for the second spot on the ticket, that is, assuming Clinton earns it. I think the best choice for Veep is New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson. As I opined in a previous article, ““…Bill Richardson has impressive credentials. He was nominated as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. In 1998, he was unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate as Secretary of Energy…his work addressing human rights abuses earned him a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995, 1997, 2000 and 2001. He also assisted in the arms negotiations with North Korean delegates. Richardson understands the power of the Hispanic voting bloc…” On the GOP side of the aisle, being mentioned as possible candidates are former federal prosecutor and New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Former N.Y. Governor George Pataki, Arizona Senator John “The Rifleman” McCain, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, Former Georgia Senator Newt Gingrich and perhaps First Brother/Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (who has stated adamantly that she is not interested) and perennial show horse, Alan Keyes. McCain has the inside track. He has name recognition, organization and money. More important, he appears to have mended the rift between himself and the Christian wing of the GOP. Romney, however, is getting a loot of buzz, as is Nebraska’s Hagel, who could steal some early thunder in the Iowa caucuses. Hagel defeated then –Governor of Nebraska, Ben Nelson, in the 1996 US Senate race. He won re-election in 2002, and had been critical of George Bush’s handling of the Iraqi debacle. He has suggested a gradual withdrawing of American forces, adding “What I think the White House does not yet understand and some of my colleagues, the dam has broke on this policy... The longer we stay there, the more similarities (to Vietnam) are going to come together.” (Think-exist.com) According to his biography in Wikipedia and a SurveyUSA poll, “Hagel has a 10% higher approval rating among Nebraska Democrats than Republicans.” He is seen as more of a moderate, which will play well across the country. The Senator serves on the Senate Foreign Relations, Housing and Urban Affairs, Banking, Intelligence and Rules Committees. He is also Chairman of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. In 1994, Romney won the Massachusetts Republican Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, but lost to Ted Kennedy by 17 percentage points, the smallest in Kennedy's eight year career as Senator. Romney has since been elected Governor (2002), and after he leaves office on January 4, is expected to announce his candidacy soon thereafter. Heading the Salt Lake City Olympic committee and balancing the Massachusetts state budget have earned Romney the reputation as being astute on economic issues. Another feather in his cap is that during the past year he signed legislation that provides insurance for nearly all citizens of Massachusetts, without raising taxes. (Mitt Romney biography, Wikipedia) Jeb Bush could throw a wrench into every one’s plans. Eight years ago, it was assumed that if another Bush were to occupy the White House, it would be Jeb and not George. The Florida Governor has across-the board support in his home state “…among Cubans in Florida (winning 80% of the Cuban vote in 2002), and popular among non-Cuban Hispanics (56% in 2002, equaling the 56% he won statewide). As a longtime supporter of Israel, Bush also maintains a significant connection to Florida's Jewish voters. He was endorsed in his two winning Governor races by a national Jewish publication, and won 44% of the state's Jewish vote in the 2002 Governor's race. Many black voters support his focus on public education and parental choice in education, and a number of Black Republican clubs have risen in Florida. In his re-election in 2002, Bush surprised critics by winning the white female vote in the swing-voting battleground of Central Florida's I-4 corridor. Most recently, he has reached out extensively to Florida's Haitian community.”(Jeb Bush biography, Wikipedia) As for Rudy G, the question is whether his popularity will stretch beyond the confines of the Big Apple and the Northeast. For one, there is a high degree of mistrust among black voters. After the shooting Of Amadou Diallo (an unarmed black man shot 41 times by NYPD officers), Giuliani released to the press the man’s criminal record, as if that somehow justified the slaying. After the broomstick sodomizing of Alner Louima, Guiliani again came to the defense of police officers. After the police shooting of a black youth walking home from a midnight basketball league game, Giuliani said the child, “should have been home at that hour. (www.NNDB .com, Rudy Giuliani) While he is still riding a wave of popularity spawned by his leadership after the 9-11 terrorist attacks, it is uncertain whether or not Giuliani has any real political acumen. A messy divorce from his past could also come back to haunt him. In the case of the GOP, I see it as McCain’s race to lose. Eventually, I think he and Romney will run neck and neck until the end, with McCain being the party’s nominee. By that time, Romney will probably have bashed McCain enough to take himself out of the running for the number two slot. From there it’s anybody’s guess. Like pre-season sports predictions, it is too early to make a definitive guess as to who will go all the way. However, I can name my pre-election season favorites. I’m thinking Clinton/Richardson Vs. McCain/Bush. ------------ About the author: Timothy N. Stelly, Sr. is a 46-year old poet, novelist and aspiring screenwriter who resides in northern California with his three youngest children--Lawrence, Kimberly and Dante. He is a member of various writer's groups and has three novels in print, his most recent, "Like A Straight-Up Sucka," is available at www.lulu.com. website: http://stellbreadO@tripod.com Email: stellbread@yahoo.com Tell a friend about this site! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com and are not allowed to be posted on other websites. ARTICLE THIEVES WILL BE PROSECUTED! |
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