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Dec. 5, 2007 “Nigeria in Danger of Eminent Collapse…” The above provocative statement is credited to United States of America Director of National Intelligence’s Annual Threat Assessment for the United States Senate Armed Services Committee in February, barely 3 months to the Nigeria April national elections. According to the DNI, this “classified ‘statement for the record are judgments of based on the efforts of thousands of patriotic, highly skilled professionals, many of whom are in harms ways…’(it is safe for us to assume who these highly trained professionals are – normal looking and sometimes normal acting citizens of their country masquerading in many guises, missionaries not the least of them ), why any intelligence outfit would want wish doom and damnation for a country and a peoples with which they are not in war or any kind of hostilities with beats the imagination. If they were privy to any information or plots the diplomatic course of action would be to supply such information to the government in question and forestall a situation , but as we shall see this kind of pre-emptory behavior has been a hallmark and stock in trade of Western and American Intelligence agencies for a long long time …for e.g. the Us government played ‘neutral’ during the Nigerian civil war refusing to supply arms to the then Federal Military Government (FMG) but quick on its blocks to provide aid to the defeated Biafrans after the war , Britain supplied unsophisticated weapons but the British public supported the Biafrans – France blatantly supplied military hardware to the Biafrans prolonging the war. This discourse is not in any way intended to reopen any healed wounds or create bad blood in international relations in any way but it is my personal assessment that the hue and cry about the ‘flawed’ presidential elections is ill guided and misinformed not the least by the Western intrigues and by greedy selfish and heartless Nigerian opportunistic politicians…and that is ‘Why The April 2007 Nigerian Presidential Elections Must Remain Flawed’. To understand the issue-s being raised it would be worthwhile to look in-depth at the notorious document which no doubt caused disturbances in the Nigerian polity of almost every sphere of endeavor. To understand the context of such documentation its importance lies in perceived and projected threats to American lives, properties and interests (…in no particular order) in a ‘globalized’world. Globalization, the DNI postulate is not a threat in self, hardly as it’s an American-Western invention but the facilitation it affords enemies of America and the West to do America especially harm. Why Nigeria would be lumped together with states and rogue elements like ‘non state actors and hostile states is a subject of perplexion.The document reads thus: “NIGERIA- DANGER OF COLLAPSE; Nigeria’s fragile democratic transition is in danger of collapsing due to lack of preparations for elections scheduled for April. Tensions are rising over concerns that President Obasanjo is manipulating the process to maintain his political influence after his term officially ends. The government’s institutional foundations are hollow from decades of neglect and corruption and will continue to make the country susceptible to recurring crisis in the coming years. Abuja has been unable to stem rising lawlessness and insecurity in its oil producing region, and the Nigerian population is increasingly demoralized from worsening living conditions in the face of much publicized improvements in the country’s macroeconomic indicators, major political unrest would threaten other counties in the region” It has been close to 3 months now ad Nigeria has not collapsed due to ‘lack of preparations’ and the ‘tensions’ that rose as a result of former President Obasanjo’s tenure elongation schemes have since dissipated with to his Ota farm enclave… no major political unrest has threatened other counties in the region or sub region… For the record- ‘statement for the record’ the is not the first and will not be the first we will see such arrogant and insensitive ‘mathematical or computer generated highly patriotic, highly skilled professional judgments- some people need to justify their day jobs. The 2007 DNI document is just a rehashed, summarized version as in November 1970 the Director of Central Intelligence submitted a similar damning assessment of post civil war Nigeria under the aegis of the same National Intelligence Estimate ( NIE ) Number 64.2-70 ( supersedes SNIE64.1-69 & 64.2-68) in the following observations , analysis , contemplations and conclusions, and inconsistencies: “Nigeria is still very much a tribal society, in which clan, tribal and regional jealousies, hostilities and interests count for ore than national attachment, with a FMG which is neither very efficient nor dynamic”. The NIE further stated that “Nigeria’s fundamental problem has been its inability to devise to devise a political arrangement which would provide both national unity and safeguard the interests of the more than 250 tribal groups”. It continued to harp on the how tribal allegiances being far stronger than national feelings scuttled an emerging federal system of government with the major tribes unable to agree ‘even on census results or to conduct fair parliamentary elections’. Again ‘tribal and regional ‘tendencies are said have been exacerbated by the military coups of 1966 and it was the NIE assessment that “it will be a long time before Nigeria becomes a homogeneous nation”. It claimed that tribal animosities were not eradicated by the war but the resultant issues “not contentious enough to test the cohesion of the Nigerian polity” (…inconsistency). The estimate quickly pointed that these were not ‘precise calculations of Nigeria’s chances of success or failure in meeting the many problems before it, but were more concerned with laying out these problems than predictions”. On ‘Prospects for Internal Cohesion’, it asserted that “ in some states bitter tribal and clan rivalries raise doubts about the permanence of regional administrative arrangements “, and that “ one of the major issues between state and Federal governments will revolve around the allocation of revenues ‘ and that when the matter of allocation of oil revenues “comes up again, non oil producing stares particularly in the North , will demand a larger share , if they do not get what they feel they are entitled to , there is likely to be trouble of some sort.” In the estimation of the NIE “the central government is probably the most fragile part of the Nigerian system, because it depends largely on one man, General Gowon …Gowon’s sudden removal would dim prospects for Nigerian stability.”The Estimate opines that the “Federal civil service could keep the machinery of government running in some fashion even without effective leadership, but a dispute among contestants for control of the FMG could arouse tribal hostilities and again endanger the cohesion of the Nigerian state”. ‘Expertly’ postulating ‘On Economic Problems and Prospects’, the NIE states categorically “Nigeria is a poor country – and like many other African states, Nigeria suffers from a debilitating climate, tropical diseases, a cultural tolerance of corruption… Nigeria does however; possess some assets which have considerable economic potential “substantial reserves of low sulphur petroleum closer to a European market than Persian Gulf oil”. The NIE postulated that though the Nigerian economy emerged from the civil war better than expected, it did however experience some strains which “increased internal debt, depleted foreign reserves and created inflation of consumer prices”, it also was of the view that “the legacy of the war is likely to weigh on the economy for some time to come, fortunately for the Federal Military Government, the petroleum industry is expanding at a faster rate than expected”, the NIE adds. In the same vein it states foreign investment in the oil industry is predicted to rise but “other investors are put off by the complexities of the Nigerian government regulations and the rudeness and corruption of many officials , most foreign dealings with the FMG involve costly delays and colored by Nigerian distrust of foreigners” NIE’s assessment of Nigeria and the world is summarized thus: “during and after the civil war , Nigerians have been developing a sense of national and racial pride , a heightened sensitivity to foreigners , and an awareness of their status as Africa’s most populous nation .There is still no indication that Nigeria is about to take bold new initiatives in foreign policy , but there is a more sharply nationalistic and xenophobic tone to Nigerian pronouncements , less pro Western and more pro –African”…and that is an issue? That is an issue. Nigeria’s relationship with the UK is described as “a kind of love / hate one reinforced by British ambivalent official policy of furnishing the Federal armed forces with ample supplies of small arms, but no aircraft or sophisticated weaponry while throughout the war British public opinion sided with the Biafrans”. With France and francophone Africa the French stand was to supply “funds and equipment which helped Biafra prolong its resistance for man months …Gabon and ivory Coast, actually extended recognition to Biafra.” Only the Soviet Union had the guts ( for their ulterior motives and reasons…cash) to match words with actions by selling the FMG “ a variety of hardware including MIG 17 planes …though the assistance was limited to sales of equipment and provision of the technical services , all paid for in hard currency” To this the NIE apparently read this gesture differently , pointing out that ( though) the Soviets were able to “enlarge diplomatic and commercial missions and expand contacts with Nigerian leftists. The Soviets continue to fund leftist politicians, labor officials, and university leaders, as well as a number of front organizations…but even in these circumstances the Soviets would realize that Nigeria’s petroleum wealth and close economic ties with the West limit the political leverage they could expect from a major aid effort”. Then the British controlled 2/3 of productive capacity, US companies second with investments of some $500 million (!) and larger commitments planned”. The US, during the Nigerian civil war sided with neither with the FMG nor the Biafrans – an indication of US lack of sympathy with Federal effort to preserve integrity of Nigeria”. The US was quick to however to offer aid to “alleviate starvation in Biafra”, a noble humanitarian gesture no doubt! The NIE postured that “even Gowon, inclined to see the US in favorable light seemed to believe the US was not really interested in Nigeria except for the petroleum”. The NIE then states “the major US material interest in Nigeria is the large and growing private investment in the oil fields” (the proclivity for foreign oil fields…). “In a broader sense, the state of Us relations with Nigeria is important simply because Nigeria is so much more populous than any other black African state and because prospects are somewhat better than most others, if it holds together”, and concludes “Nigerian officials are proud, hypersensitive and prickly”. Finally , ‘Prospects with Africa and Poor Countries Elsewhere’, reads “ if domestic conditions are sufficiently tranquil…”( as against tumultuous ) “… for Nigeria to devote more attention to international questions , it will probably become s more active, and certainly more vocal , in efforts to alleviate the plight of poor countries”. And if that was not crass enough an official statement it adds, “ Nigeria, over the next decade will probably manifest considerable frustration and resentment of the rich world, and will join with other major countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa in efforts to bring pressure upon the rich”. It is evident that intelligence works of the West and US must be subjected to sterner tests of principle so that their efficacy will be less in doubt but from inference ( of the NIE and similar intelligence documents which may be classified ) rising economic and social tension would also favor intelligence operations , not least those of the interventionary kind and worsening ‘corruption’ of many newly developing /democratic regimes would afford innumerable opportunities for the interventionary opportunities of this sort and other kinds ( the Nazi Abwehr before and during WWII deftly spread dissent in advance of invasions, the CIA has instigated or supported overthrow of governments in regions all over the world using similar – ‘refined’ tact). Walter Pincus , a Washington Post staff writer wrote on Monday , May 28, 2007( The Washington Post , page A 13) ‘US AFRICA COMMAND BRINGS NEW CONCERNS :Fears of Militarization Of The Continent Cited’. The article points at the fact that the AFRICOM (Africa Command) created by the US Defense Department in February 2007 with headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany and operations to begin in October 2007, has responsibilities of a combat command to “facilitate or lead (US) military operations on the continent”(… fiction becomes reality as in the novel ‘Flagrant Violation’ by Stephen Lonewolf Makama, rogue elements of the US military attempt just that). Nigeria has seemingy defies all permutations at its predicted fragmentation, its cohesion or very existence and its continued amalgamation an aberration and rebuttal to all intelligence guesstimates. The very ‘success’, granted, flawed April presidential elections is an anomaly, a glitch ‘which has to be corrected …at what costs? Situations like Rwanda, Somalia, Zimbabwe are few examples of the ‘efficacy and genuineness’’ of ‘intelligence estimates’. There is something about Nigeria and Nigerians that were it not for extenuating circumstances it would be that super-power many fear it would be. That is WHY THE NIGERIA APRIL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS HAVE TO AND MUST REMAIN FLAWED! P.S.- This article was completed on September 1, 2007. ------------ About the author: Stephen Lonewolf Makama is a longtime contributor to Useless Knowledge. Email: lonewolfmak@yahoo.com Comment on this article here! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com. Please link to this article rather than copying and pasting it onto your site (which would be unauthorized and illegal). |
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