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Apr. 6, 2007 The federal government released its March economic reports, and the national unemployment rate has now dropped to 4.4% (from 4.5%) with companies boosting their employment by 180,000 in March. Many economists had forecast an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6% and believed that only 135,000 jobs would actually be added during the month, so the real data handily beat the consensus estimates. The government also revised upwards its estimates of the number of jobs created in January and February of this year. At the same time workers' pay continues to increase, with average hourly earnings increasing to $17.22 (.3% increase from February). Wages have increased 4% over the past 12 months. Economic growth is slowing somewhat from what had been a fairly torrid pace for an extended period of time; however, it still remains comfortably in positive territory (estimated 2% for the first quarter of 2007). Sure, there is some cause for concern, as there virtually always is in evaluating the future direction of the economy. A prolonged deterioration in housing values can put a damper on consumer spending, which drives most economic activity after all. The increase in housing values across the country, however, cannot continue unabated without some adjustments along the way, just as economic growth cannot continue indefinitely without some pullback. These periods are part of the standard economic cycles and are not evidence of some dire long-term trend. The economy has been healthy for years now, despite war, unprecedented natural disaster and international political uncertainty, and there is sufficient reason to believe it will continue to be strong into the future, even with the painful retrenchment in the manufacturing world. What is truly interesting is that, despite a relatively stable economic picture which has existed for years, a recent poll indicates that just 38 percent of respondents approve of President Bush's handling of the economy while 60 percent expressed disapproval with the president's economic prowess. Even if we set aside the bias which is often evident in how these polls are crafted (the exact question which was asked of respondents was not readily available) and executed, the results are still startling. Many of us may believe the president has very little impact on the economy in the first place; still, 60 percent of people appear to be blaming Bush for something related to the economy. It seems there are two primary reasons for such negative results in a poll which was specifically related to the economy. The first is rampant Bush-hatred, which has been fueled by the Iraq War (with the aid, of course, of Democrats and their media friends who have overemphasize the negative in the conflict while virtually ignoring anything remotely positive). President Bush has become such a divining rod for emotionally charged rhetoric, that many respondents to polls are going to express disapproval with anything associated with him--whether it is the economy, other domestic issues, even the color of his tie. The "Bush-hatred factor" is a significant reason for adverse responses to polls covering economic topics. The second factor in the negative poll results, one which is certainly linked with the first, is the constant depressing drumbeat of the media in general. Much of the mainstream press has, for years, under reported anything positive related to the economy just as they have avoided reporting accomplishments in the war. Even when good news is reported, it is often veiled in warnings of economic doom lying in wait just around the corner. The economy is growing, but there could be a recession at any time. Unemployment is low, but for how long? Consumers are spending, but they are just going into deeper debt. This subjective reporting helps to explain why many polls reflect citizens as generally upbeat and optimistic with their own lives and future, but really worried about the "overall direction" of the economy. People are optimistic about their own economic future but not that of the country as a whole? This apparent contradiction is not really a surprise. When we are continually told that something is just not right with the economic situation in this country by multiple media sources, we eventually begin to believe it; the dire predictions seep into our sub-conscious and may even have a certain self-fulfilling element to them (if we allow it). The economy remains, by all historically relevant measures, favorable to that which was present during most of President Bill Clinton's term in office (with the possible exception of the bubble period in the late in the 90's, which was fed by "irrational exuberance" from the dot-com boom among other factors). Unemployment is below that which is was on average during the 1990's, economic growth continues at a healthy and noninflationary rate, home ownership rates are high and average wage earnings are growing at a solid pace. Even the stock market has flirted once again with the record territory established during the exuberant late 90's. An objective observer would see that the economic picture is more stable now than it was in 1999 or 2000, when it was a veritable house of cards built on a teeter-tawter. Yet, despite these truths, the average respondent in the street appears to believe that everything was rosy under Bill Clinton while it is miserable under the direction of our current president. And the reasons for these skewed viewpoints lie somewhat beyond any economic actions undertaken by President Bush or Clinton. Indeed, they are more the reflection of agenda-driven journalism than presidential economic prowess. ------------ About the author: Ed Abraham is a concerned citizen living in flyover country, U.S.A., who happens to be truly disgusted by the loss of common sense in our society and is doing all he can to try to reinstall it. Email: eabra@myway.com Comment on this article here! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com. Please link to this article rather than copying and pasting it onto your site (which would be unauthorized and illegal). |
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