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Oct. 21, 2006 In an October 18, 2006 article in The Wall Street Journal’s Opinion Journal, Steven E. Moore, himself obviously experienced in on-the-ground surveys in Iraq, assails the recently published study from Baltimore’s John Hopkins University and Baghdad’s al-Mustansiriya University that estimated Iraq’s post-invasion excess deaths at 665,000. This is many times greater than George W. Bush’s December, 2005 estimate of 30,000 as well as Iraq Body Count’s current estimate, which is around 50,000. Moore’s article is entitled, “655,000 War Dead? A bogus study on Iraq casualties,” but, of course, Moore may not have chosen the title himself. The crux of his argument is that the cited survey was conducted at only 47 cluster points in Iraq’s 18 governorates. Moore mentions other surveys, in the Congo and elsewhere, that depended on many more cluster points. He further derides the fact the the survey teams did not collect other demographic data, such as the age, sex and educational level of interviewees, which they might have collated with census figures as a double-check. Moore does not quibble with the sample size of 1849 households, which is a much bigger sample than polls like Gallup, ABC and Zobgy use in elections. He says he wouldn’t use only 47 cluster points even to survey a junior high school, let alone a whole country, though he seems to accept equanimously enough that a 50-point survey was used in Kosovo. Moore’s obvious intent is to belittle and dismiss however. To see through the transparently indefensible arguments that Moore offers, let us transfer the same kind of figures to more familiar territory. Let us suppose that California, which has somewhat more people than Iraq, were in the midst of a gubernatorial election. The votes had all been cast, but the totals had not been calculated or published. In the meantime, a survey group conducted an exit poll, querying voters on whom they voted for. They polled in 47 precincts scattered over 18 counties in California, chosen at random, surveying 1849 people. The survey revealed that 66.5% of the people had voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger. In the morning, however, when the official tally had been made, it was found that Schwarzenegger had collected only 5% of the actual vote. No one, but no one, would accept the error in the survey as due to the fewness of the places polled, just shrugging it off as indicative of the limitations of surveys of the kind. Everyone would cry fraud, and justifiably so. It is entirely inconceivable that such a thing could happen, even if the cluster points had been cherry-picked by people with a hidden agenda. It is just impossible! The only explanation for the discrepancy in the Iraq body counts is that someone is lying. Moore does not accuse the organizers of the survey of lying. Rather he attacks their methodology, but he’s dead-wrong. While it is, of course, preferable to have as many cluster points as possible, it is out of the question that the survey is merely in error. The only question that remains, as far as I am concerned, is, “Who is lying?” Is it the two universities that conducted the survey or is it the Bush administation and the sycophantic media? To tell you the truth, I don’t know. But if Bush and his people are lying, it won’t be the first time. I incline towards the 655,000. ------------ About the author Thomas Keyes: I have written two books: A SOJOURN IN ASIA (non-fiction) and A TALE OF UNG (fiction), neither published so far. I have studied languages for years and traveled extensively on five continents. Email: udikeyes@yahoo.com Comment on this article here! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com and are not allowed to be posted on other websites. ARTICLE THIEVES WILL BE PROSECUTED! |
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