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NFL Week 13 Playoff Analysis

By Claxton Graham
Nov. 28, 2006

It’s a good thing I have a real job. As a football prognosticator, I stink.

As we’re now past Thanksgiving, it’s time to start talking turkey. And in the case of football, turkey does not mean a game involving the Lions (although it usually does). The teams talking turkey now are the ones who have a shot at making the playoffs. At least three division championships can be determined in Week 13, with one of them up for grabs Thursday night. I’ll have more on that in a moment.

Back on August 12, I made my picks for the playoffs. I can’t blame the heat for screwing this up; this is all my own doing. By way of recap, I’ll list who I picked for glory and who’s actually living up to the hype (as of Tuesday morning, November 28).

My AFC Picks: Indianapolis (as AFC South Champion and top seed in the playoffs); Miami (as AFC East Champion); Kansas City (as AFC West Champion); Pittsburgh (as AFC North Champion); Jacksonville (as a Wild Card); Denver (as a Wild Card).

Actual AFC Seeds (if the playoffs were to start today): Indianapolis (as AFC South Champion and top seed in the playoffs); Baltimore (as AFC North Champion); San Diego (as AFC West Champion); New England (as AFC East Champion); Kansas City (as a Wild Card); Denver (as a Wild Card).

At 10-1, Indianapolis is the best team in football in terms of record. Baltimore and San Diego, both playing with different quarterbacks this season, have exploded onto the scene. The Ravens’ renaissance may be traced back to the firing of offensive coordinator Jim Fassell; the Chargers, meanwhile, have gotten all-world play from running back LaDanian Tomlinson. And New England is still New England; that’s nothing new. Kansas City survived without Trent Green and has proven to be dangerous. And though Denver is right there, they may not be in it if Mike Shanahan’s move to bench Jake Plummer for rookie Jay Cutler doesn’t pan out.

Jacksonville’s kryptonite seems to be Houston. The Texans swept the Jaguars this season, outscoring them 40-17. If they happen to miss the playoffs, those games will come back to haunt them. Miami got a slow start with Duante Culpepper at the controls, but seemed to find their stride with Lions’ castoff Joey Harrington leading the way.

And folks in Pittsburgh have to be asking why oh why Bill Cowher insists on playing a less-than-one-hundred-percent Big Ben. Remember that you heard it here first: I believe that Bill Cowher’s next move will be to Raleigh, to replace the recently-deposed Chuck Amato as the head coach of N.C. State’s football team.

My NFC Picks: Carolina (as NFC South Champion and top seed in the playoffs); Seattle (as NFC West Champion); New York Giants (as NFC East Champion); Chicago (as NFC North Champion); Washington (as a Wild Card); Atlanta (as a Wild Card).

Actual NFC Seeds (if the playoffs were to start today): Chicago (as NFC North Champion and top seed in the playoffs); New Orleans (as NFC South Champion); Dallas (as NFC East Champion); Seattle (as NFC West Champion); New York Giants (as a Wild Card); Carolina (as a Wild Card).

Even though the Bears dropped their Week 12 tilt at New England, that isn’t the team’s biggest concern. Chicago gets inconsistent play from its quarterback position, and it will hurt them if Rex Grossman doesn’t tighten things up. They’re the NFC’s number-one team right now, though, and their defense is good enough to keep them there. New Orleans took a chance on Drew Brees, and it’s paying big dividends, although they’re still looking for number-one draft pick Reggie Bush to break out. Dallas has won four of its last five since Tony Romo took over at quarterback, and has seized control of the NFC East. Seattle survived the absence of Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander; with both of them back, they now have a two-game lead in the West. Both the Giants and Panthers have quarterback issues right now; inconsistent play from both Eli Manning and Jake Delhomme has both teams looking over their shoulders.

Atlanta and Washington are in deep trouble. Although the Falcons still have some life left and the more legitimate shot to get into the playoffs right now, the Redskins would need to win out AND get a lot of help to get into the playoff party. That includes beating the Falcons in a Week 13 tilt in Washington.

Current Playoff Scenarios: Baltimore clinches the AFC North with a win at Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Ravens, then, could do no worse than fourth seed in the playoffs. The Bengals can’t afford to lose this one, as their own playoff hopes are at stake.

Chicago clinches the NFC North if they win or tie at home against Minnesota. The Vikings have come back to earth after a 4-2 start with losses in four of their last five games. They need a big win on the road to stay in the playoff chase.

Indianapolis clinches the AFC South if they win at Tennessee in an early game Sunday OR if Jacksonville loses at Miami later in the day. If the Colts and Jaguars both end their games with ties, Indy clinches the division. Indianapolis can clinch a playoff berth if they lose, but that scenario involves a combination of things dependent on the performance of five other teams.

Complete scenarios and schedule information can be found on the NFL’s website, NFL.com.

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About the author: Claxton Graham has written over 100 articles for Useless Knowledge. He has also written the unpublished novels The Writer's Nightmare and Santa's Sleigh Is Missing. He works as a business analyst.

Email: scifiwriter8502@email.com


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