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Nov. 8, 2006 An interesting thought for the Iraq problem... We have two main forces we are fighting: terrorists and sectarians. 1. The terrorists are there to fight Americans. 2. The sectarians are there to fight members of the rival sect. Right now we are trying to occupy all of Iraq, to prevent any area from being "in the hands of the terrorists," even as we have the ability to strike any terrorist outpost from any one base in Iraq easily. If we leave an area, and the terrorists claim it, we can just blow them up, far more easily than we can when we hold an area and they are in hiding. If they stay in hiding, then they cannot attack us anywhere but in the areas we are in. The sectarian violence, then, is our true problem, though we cannot ignore the terrorists. But this violence is primarily confined to the areas where the two groups mingle, primarily a line drawn through the desert, from Kuwait, to Baghdad, and on to Iran. This is a large area to police, and the most violent of the sectarians will resent our interference, but it is more winnable than the fight to control all of Iraq. But what about the terrorists? What about the Chaos? What about rebuilding Iraq? I will handle each of these questions in turn. First, the terrorists: As I have said, they are not here for land, but to strike at us. Our goals are served by reducing our footprint, thus forcing them into a similarly smaller footprint. This will reduce civilian casualties and put more birds in a smaller bush to allow our troops to do the most good. It will also cut supply lines and patrol areas, reducing the vulnerability of our troops. Second, the "chaos," which departing troops will "of course," leave behind them. Well, the sects have a lot more to gain by stabilizing their areas than not. Control of the government will be based on each sect helping their people to vote and be engaged in the government of their nation. Payments to Iraqis for chaos, sabotage, and attacks on the US will not be as useful to terrorists in areas we do not occupy. Expect the areas which are not divided along sect lines to quickly become quiet when we leave. Perhaps not as democratic as we would hope, but stable nonetheless. Third, rebuilding Iraq. This is the thorniest question, and the answer, probably lies in subcontracting. If we make an agreement with sect leaders, to pay them rebuilding funds on the condition that those funds go to third nation firms for rebuilding, we could see real progress. I'm referring to paying Shiite leaders to hire Saudi or Dubai firms to rebuild western Iraq, and paying Sunni leaders to hire Pakistani or even well vetted Iranian firms to rebuild southern Iraq. We would need some controls to ensure that this money did not go towards terrorist or nationalist aims, but as Hezbollah has proven, paying to rebuild can help secure political power far more effectively than arms. Does this outcome require some moral indifference? Yes, certainly. In fact, it would require the moral equivalent of holding our nose against the stench. But I can ignore the smell of my baby's poop long enough to change a diaper, perhaps we can ignore the stench of sectarian dominance long enough to stabilize Iraq. So, my proposal in a nutshell. We pull out of the areas already held by one sect or another, and redeploy in the areas where the sects are mixed. Then we target only those who fire on us or civilians, and try to broker (by force if needed) peace between the tribes that make up the two warring sects. We reduce the footprint, and probably the number, of our troops on the ground, and force the terrorists to come to us. Of course, I am not a tactician, nor do I have Iraq experience, I'm sure one of my husband's Marine or Army officer contemporaries could plan this better. ------------ About the author: Being a full time writer is the hardest job that I have tried. I have written two books that are currently not published because the company that did publish them went out of business. I have written three childrens books and am currently in the process of finishing my third novel. Please write me with any thought that comes to mind about my columns or anything else, opinions are appreciated. Email Amanda Baker: amaycatbaker@yahoo.com Comment on this article here! ------------ All articles are EXCLUSIVE to Useless-Knowledge.com. Please link to this article rather than copying and pasting it onto your site (which would be unauthorized and illegal). |
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