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Specious Arguments

By Tom Pain
July 21, 2006

The world is in danger! People keep telling us so, daily. They’ve lined up experts to delineate their theory and they cite reams of evidence that supposedly support the theory. Yet, many people do not believe. They don’t cite as much evidence to the contrary as proponents cite in support, but they can clearly point out the holes in the logic of the doomsday crowd.

Who are we to believe? If we opt for preemptive action, we might prevent the calamity from happening. But the non-believers fight against that action, they claim the collateral damage is too great of a price to pay for prevention of a disaster that cannot even be proven to exist. Yet, if we opt to do nothing, our society, our way of life, all of mankind, could possibly suffer horrendous death, destruction, and centuries of rebuilding.

Which side is good and which side is evil? Are neither side either?

Unfortunately, the scenario I’m describing is not just an isolated case today. No, the reality is that we have two groups claiming imminent disaster, from different dangers. And the crazy part is that each disbelieves the other’s warnings, but insists without doubt that their own fears are justified.

Neither side has absolutely convincing arguments, either for their own doomsday predictions or against the other’s. Both refuse to compromise, either by agreeing to take preemptive action against both, or by taking a wait-and-see attitude about both. But, in fine American fashion, the People have spoken – by electing one side instead of the other. Predictably, the side that lost those elections could care less about the Will of the People and continue to fight any compromise while raging on about their doomsday theory.

The two opposing doomsday theories to which I refer? Conservatives warn about the dangers of global terrorism and liberals warn against the dangers of global warming.

Liberals love to claim that WMDs were not found in Iraq, conservatives disagree. Conservatives gloat over scientific predictions of a coming Ice Age back in the ‘70s, and liberals dismiss that as regrettable error that is not being repeated with the current hysteria. Conservatives list the numerous attacks against our country by Muslim extremists and their stated intentions to exterminate our culture; liberals dismiss those as just misguided people expressing their deserved outrage at an oppressive world. Liberals parade a slew of scientists by who labor through boring data, extrapolations, and predictive models that support their theory of a warming Earth. Conservatives simply note that those are just theories, extrapolations, and models; that honesty does require a reasonable doubt as to the liberal conclusions, and they parade their own imminent scientists by who naysay convincingly.

Obviously, I, like most politically informed people, have a bias. Here is why:

I can see the dead bodies from 9/11. I know of the other dozen or so attacks against us by terrorists, I have seen those bodies. I listen to the Muslims – there is no confusion about their words, they do want to annihilate us. Most importantly, I know that were I standing in front of that terrorist tomorrow, he would kill be if he could. In other words, the threat of global terrorism, if true, can happen tomorrow. Iran could have nukes within months.

I cannot tell, nor can the world’s scientists, that global warming is even dangerous. I read imminent scientists whose opinions fall on both sides of the issue. Although it is hard to get them to admit it, even those predicting the danger cannot be 100% sure of their theory. Either way, it definitely is not a problem tomorrow.

So I choose to focus on terrorism today. And I don’t understand why the global warming crowd, comprised of almost the same people who oppose the war on global terrorism, don’t get on board with that fight. I would even agree to a compromise – join us in fighting terrorism by accepting our worst case theories on its scope, and we’ll join you in fighting global warming with similar zeal.

Seems reasonable, but it won’t happen. I think there is a chance for such a compromise from the conservatives, I just don’t think the liberals would agree. They have a tendency to think themselves correct all the time.

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About the author Tom Pain: Just an American boy with so much common sense, it hurts.

Email: thomas.pain@hughes.net


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