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McCrae Fails His Mathematics Test

By Thomas Keyes
Aug. 18, 2005

Either Michael John McCrae, or his source, AP reporter Matt Crenson, or somebody else has misquoted one Steve Olson. In his recent article, “A Mathematical ‘Roots’ Review”, Michael McCrae writes of and quotes Matt Crenson thus:

“The July 2nd AP article: “How deep are humanity’s common roots?” by Matt Crenson reinforced my love of numbers and my faith in God exponentially. The subtitle: ‘Experts: Everyone shares ancestor who lived less than 5000 years ago’ drove me into the story and the numbers,”

I was shocked that anyone on the planet would make such a fatuous statement today, since it is widely believed that 5000 years ago the American Indians, my forebears in part, were already in the Americas, separate from the Asiatic peoples with whom they may have had a common ancestry more anciently. Of course, I cannot personally vouch for the whereabouts of the American Indians at that time.

I conducted a Yahoo Search for Crenson’s article, but I found only other, unrelated articles by him.

However, I found Houghton Mifflin’s press release for Steve Olson’s “Mapping Human History”. Here is an excerpt:

“In May 2002, Steve Olson, one of the country's most accomplished science writers, provided the first detailed narrative of the rise of modern humans. “Mapping Human History: Discovering the Past Through Our Genes” was selected as a finalist for the nonfiction National Book Award and is now being made available in trade paperback. In his critically acclaimed book, Olson weaves together findings from archaeology, linguistics, and, above all, genetics to produce unique insights into who we are and where we came from. He also shows that the ethnic and racial differences that loom so large in today's societies are biologically meaningless. ‘Only about 6,000 generations separate everyone alive today from a common set of ancestors,’ Olson reminds us, before he sets out to reconstruct our evolutionary history, providing unique insights into the fundamental questions of who we are and where we come from.”

http://www.houghtonmifflinbooks.com/booksellers/press_release/olson/

If this press release is quite accurate, we see that McCrae’s 5000 years should really be 6000 generations. If we figure 25 years per generation, then, we are talking about 150,000 years. I’m skeptical even of that, but it comes closer to being in the realm of the possible.

McCrae also gives the example of doubling. Everyone has 2 parents, 4 grandparents, 8 great-grandparents, etc. So 2^33, that is, 2 to the 33rd power, equals about 8.5 billion, more than the present population of the planet. So it could have taken as few as 32 generations to populate the planet. But what if my great-grandfather had been married to two of my great-grandmothers, at different times? Then I’d have only 7 great-grandparents. This is precisely what must have happened repeatedly in human history, except that the kinship was probably removed by even more generations, so that no one even suspected it was happening. Otherwise the population would be astronomical.

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About the author Thomas Keyes: I have written two books: A SOJOURN IN ASIA (non-fiction) and A TALE OF UNG (fiction), neither published so far.

I have studied languages for years and traveled extensively on five continents.

Email: udikeyes@yahoo.com


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